Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement that a
shortwave trough will move through the Southwest into the southern
Plains on D4/Tuesday, before then trending towards a more negative
tilt while moving through the Lower/Mid MS Valley and into the OH
and TN Valley on D5/Wednesday. This shortwave is then forecast to
continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday.
Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses
eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on
D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave
across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching
through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop
this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp
dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm
development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by
strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will
support updraft organization and the potential for all severe
hazards.
The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley
on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on
D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong.
Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively
tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt
850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping
hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective
mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a
discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived
supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most
likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential
for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations.
The shortwave will likely lose some definition by D6/Thursday but
remain strong enough to support thunderstorms as it interacts with
the moderately moist and buoyant environment across the
Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields are expected to support organized
severe thunderstorms across portions of central VA and central NC.
Variability (both run to run and between models) increases after
D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence and predictability on
D7/Friday and D8/Saturday.
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