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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, March 26, 2022

SPC Mar 26, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Southwest into the southern Plains on D4/Tuesday, before then trending towards a more negative tilt while moving through the Lower/Mid MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley on D5/Wednesday. This shortwave is then forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will support updraft organization and the potential for all severe hazards. The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong. Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt 850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations. The shortwave will likely lose some definition by D6/Thursday but remain strong enough to support thunderstorms as it interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant environment across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields are expected to support organized severe thunderstorms across portions of central VA and central NC. Variability (both run to run and between models) increases after D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence and predictability on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)