SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Middle Atlantic into
southern New England.
...Northeast/mid-Atlantic Region this afternoon...
Compact upper low over northeast OH will evolve into an open wave as
it moves generally east through tonight. Very cold mid-level
temperatures of -30 to -35C combined with diurnal heating will
contribute to weak instability (MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg) this
afternoon despite dew points in the upper 30s/lower 40s across
portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Strongest low/mid-level
winds will remain generally over the NC/southern VA/Delmarva region,
with diminishing winds with northward extent. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to continue developing as large-scale
ascent develops with the approaching upper low. Small hail will be
possible with the strongest convective elements given the thermal
profiles, and gusty surface winds may also occur especially where
steeper low-level lapse rates are present.
...Elsewhere...
Large-scale upper-level ridge across the western CONUS and generally
dry/stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development
through tonight.
..Bunting.. 03/26/2022
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