SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Middle Atlantic into
southern New England.
...Middle Atlantic to Southern New England...
Very cold mid-level trough is currently located over southern lower
MI. This feature is forecast to shift into PA by mid day as a 100kt
500mb speed max translates across northeast TN and off the Middle
Atlantic Coast. Latest model guidance suggests 12hr height falls on
the order of 150-180m with sub -30C 500mb temperatures north of this
strong jet. While boundary-layer moisture will be scant ahead of
this feature, forecast soundings exhibit very steep lapse rates
through 6km (8.5 C/km) which will likely yield a few hundred J/kg
SBCAPE at peak heating. Scattered convection will likely develop
ahead of the upper low, driven in large part by surface heating, by
midday. Given the very cold profiles, deepest cloud depths will
easily penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/26/2022
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