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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, March 26, 2022

SPC Mar 26, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Middle Atlantic into southern New England through early evening. ...20z Update... The 10 percent general thunder line has been trimmed across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast based on latest radar observations and location of at least a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE per 19z Mesoanalysis. Isolated lightning flashes are possible through early evening as shallow convection continues to shift east/northeast in tandem with the northeast-progressing midlevel trough. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022/ ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic Region this afternoon... Compact upper low over northeast OH will evolve into an open wave as it moves generally east through tonight. Very cold mid-level temperatures of -30 to -35C combined with diurnal heating will contribute to weak instability (MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg) this afternoon despite dew points in the upper 30s/lower 40s across portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Strongest low/mid-level winds will remain generally over the NC/southern VA/Delmarva region, with diminishing winds with northward extent. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue developing as large-scale ascent develops with the approaching upper low. Small hail will be possible with the strongest convective elements given the thermal profiles, and gusty surface winds may also occur especially where steeper low-level lapse rates are present. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale upper-level ridge across the western CONUS and generally dry/stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development through tonight. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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