SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Middle
Atlantic into southern New England through early evening.
...20z Update...
The 10 percent general thunder line has been trimmed across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast based on latest radar observations and
location of at least a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE per 19z
Mesoanalysis. Isolated lightning flashes are possible through early
evening as shallow convection continues to shift east/northeast in
tandem with the northeast-progressing midlevel trough. Severe storms
are not expected.
..Leitman.. 03/26/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022/
...Northeast/mid-Atlantic Region this afternoon...
Compact upper low over northeast OH will evolve into an open wave as
it moves generally east through tonight. Very cold mid-level
temperatures of -30 to -35C combined with diurnal heating will
contribute to weak instability (MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg) this
afternoon despite dew points in the upper 30s/lower 40s across
portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Strongest low/mid-level
winds will remain generally over the NC/southern VA/Delmarva region,
with diminishing winds with northward extent. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to continue developing as large-scale
ascent develops with the approaching upper low. Small hail will be
possible with the strongest convective elements given the thermal
profiles, and gusty surface winds may also occur especially where
steeper low-level lapse rates are present.
...Elsewhere...
Large-scale upper-level ridge across the western CONUS and generally
dry/stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development
through tonight.
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