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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, March 25, 2022

SPC Mar 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution of an upper low expected to begin the period centered off the central CA Coast. Expectation is for this low to progress eastward/southeastward across southern CA on D4/Monday before devolving into an open wave as it moves across the Southeast and into the southern Plains on D5/Tuesday. The system is then forecast to pivot towards a more neutral tilt late D5/Tuesday and to a negative tilt as it moves through the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley on D6/Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, stretching from northern Mexico across much of the southern Plains on D5/Tuesday and across the Mid/Lower MS Valley into the TN and OH Valley and Southeast on D6/Wednesday. Low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, with 60s dewpoints likely reaching the OK/KS border vicinity on D4/Tuesday and mid 60s dewpoints likely in place across the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South on D5/Wednesday. The combination of buoyancy and lift is expected to result in thunderstorm development. Additionally, the moderate southerly low-level flow beneath the strong mid-level southwesterly flow result in supercell wind profiles both on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Greatest severe potential on D5/Tuesday currently appears to be from northwest TX across western/central OK into central/eastern KS. Greatest severe potential on D6/Wednesday is from the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley. Guidance currently suggests the low- and mid-level winds will strengthen on D6/Wednesday, resulting in very impressive wind profiles. This strengthening of the flow, coupled with the negatively tilted character to the shortwave and ample low-level moisture, suggests the potential for numerous severe storms exists. As a result, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if the current trends within the guidance persist. Some severe potential could extend in the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, on D7/Thursday, but displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent and questions about buoyancy currently limit predictability. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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