Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement with the
evolution of an upper low expected to begin the period centered off
the central CA Coast. Expectation is for this low to progress
eastward/southeastward across southern CA on D4/Monday before
devolving into an open wave as it moves across the Southeast and
into the southern Plains on D5/Tuesday. The system is then forecast
to pivot towards a more neutral tilt late D5/Tuesday and to a
negative tilt as it moves through the southern Plains and Mid/Lower
MS Valley on D6/Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, stretching from northern Mexico across much of the
southern Plains on D5/Tuesday and across the Mid/Lower MS Valley
into the TN and OH Valley and Southeast on D6/Wednesday.
Low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, with 60s
dewpoints likely reaching the OK/KS border vicinity on D4/Tuesday
and mid 60s dewpoints likely in place across the Lower MS
Valley/Mid-South on D5/Wednesday. The combination of buoyancy and
lift is expected to result in thunderstorm development.
Additionally, the moderate southerly low-level flow beneath the
strong mid-level southwesterly flow result in supercell wind
profiles both on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Greatest severe
potential on D5/Tuesday currently appears to be from northwest TX
across western/central OK into central/eastern KS. Greatest severe
potential on D6/Wednesday is from the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South
into the Lower OH Valley.
Guidance currently suggests the low- and mid-level winds will
strengthen on D6/Wednesday, resulting in very impressive wind
profiles. This strengthening of the flow, coupled with the
negatively tilted character to the shortwave and ample low-level
moisture, suggests the potential for numerous severe storms exists.
As a result, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later
outlooks if the current trends within the guidance persist.
Some severe potential could extend in the East Coast, particularly
the Carolinas, on D7/Thursday, but displacement from the stronger
forcing for ascent and questions about buoyancy currently limit
predictability.
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