SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible today in
eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia and parts of central
Florida.
Minor reductions to the extent of the Marginal Risk areas were
performed during this update. The primary risk areas remain over
east-central parts of the FL Peninsula between the cold front and
Atlantic Coast with the diurnal convection, and from northeast NC
into southeast VA where a brief/weak tornado may occur with 100-200
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. For more information on the VA/NC area, see
mesoscale discussion #0336.
..Jewell.. 03/24/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022/
...Florida...
Showers/thunderstorms remain common at midday particularly behind
(northwest of) a south/southeastward-moving cold front across the
Florida Peninsula, although a recent increase in scattered
convection has occurred across the middle part of the Peninsula
within the warm sector. Cloud cover may tend to mute the degree of
destabilization/updraft accelerations to a degree where deep-layer
shear is strongest near the front. Regardless, a moist air mass (70s
F surface dewpoints) and insolation will result in a likely
intensification of storms through early/mid-afternoon, particularly
across the east-central/parts of southeast Florida Peninsula. A few
strong or severe storms may occur, including damaging wind and/or
small hail potential and possibly a brief/weak tornado. For
additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 335.
...Southeast Virginia/eastern North Carolina...
Severe-weather potential will likely continue to diminish and
otherwise remain low owing to the prevalence of scattered
showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover within the warm sector to the
east of a an east/northeastward-advancing surface low and cold
front. Even with a limited thermodynamic environment, some
short-term guidance continues to suggest a couple of low-topped
stronger storms/weak supercells could develop this afternoon on the
western periphery of the early day cloud cover near the
front/surface low, where low-level shear will remain moderately
strong. Will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook
cycle.
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