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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, March 24, 2022

SPC Mar 24, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible today in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia and parts of central Florida. Minor reductions to the extent of the Marginal Risk areas were performed during this update. The primary risk areas remain over east-central parts of the FL Peninsula between the cold front and Atlantic Coast with the diurnal convection, and from northeast NC into southeast VA where a brief/weak tornado may occur with 100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. For more information on the VA/NC area, see mesoscale discussion #0336. ..Jewell.. 03/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022/ ...Florida... Showers/thunderstorms remain common at midday particularly behind (northwest of) a south/southeastward-moving cold front across the Florida Peninsula, although a recent increase in scattered convection has occurred across the middle part of the Peninsula within the warm sector. Cloud cover may tend to mute the degree of destabilization/updraft accelerations to a degree where deep-layer shear is strongest near the front. Regardless, a moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) and insolation will result in a likely intensification of storms through early/mid-afternoon, particularly across the east-central/parts of southeast Florida Peninsula. A few strong or severe storms may occur, including damaging wind and/or small hail potential and possibly a brief/weak tornado. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 335. ...Southeast Virginia/eastern North Carolina... Severe-weather potential will likely continue to diminish and otherwise remain low owing to the prevalence of scattered showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover within the warm sector to the east of a an east/northeastward-advancing surface low and cold front. Even with a limited thermodynamic environment, some short-term guidance continues to suggest a couple of low-topped stronger storms/weak supercells could develop this afternoon on the western periphery of the early day cloud cover near the front/surface low, where low-level shear will remain moderately strong. Will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook cycle. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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