SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated damaging winds
are possible across the Midwest and Upper Ohio Valley vicinity this
afternoon. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging winds may
occur across the Southeast today through tonight.
The previous outlook thinking matches up well with current
observations, and little change was made for this update.
Ohio/West Virginia update, see mesoscale discussion 325.
South Georgia/North Florida update, see mesoscale discussion 323.
..Jewell.. 03/23/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022/
...Ohio Valley/Midwest...
A substantial shortwave impulse over the Ark-La-Miss will move
northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes through this evening. An
attendant intense mid-level speed max (at or above 110-kt at 500-mb)
will become centered from central Kentucky to the northern
Mississippi/Alabama border area by 21Z. While the primary surface
cyclone will drift east-northeast across parts of northern Illinois,
a secondary low should develop within the exit region of the
mid-level jet across west-central to northwest Ohio along the arcing
baroclinic zone. Cloud breaks to the west of stratiform rain across
the central Appalachians should yield a pocket of modest buoyancy
(MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg), as a corridor of mid to upper 50s surface
dew points become established within the thermal axis near the
Ohio/West Virginia/Kentucky border area.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through early/mid
afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau and spread northeast across
the Upper Ohio Valley. Very strong effective shear in excess of 70
kt should yield a highly elongated hodograph, and foster at least a
few discrete splitting supercells. Optimal low-level hodographs may
only be present in the early portion of the convective life cycle
within the narrow warm/moist sector, lowering confidence of a
greater severe threat. Nevertheless, the presence of the surface
warm front suggests a few tornadoes and scattered large hail appear
possible aside from damaging winds, with this risk expected to be
relatively maximized across western West Virginia into much of
east/southeast Ohio.
On the northwest periphery of the risk area(s), in closer relative
proximity to the surface low, some severe storms will also be
possible in vicinity of the narrow warm/moist sector across
eastern/northern Indiana and west/northwest Ohio into Lower
Michigan. This includes the potential for severe hail and isolated
damaging winds, and possibly a couple of brief tornadoes. Regarding
a tornado risk, near-boundary maximized vorticity and steep lapse
rates/ample low-level CAPE may be potential compensatory factors for
less supercell-favorable wind profiles with west/northwestward
extent across far western Ohio into northern/eastern Indiana and
Lower Michigan.
...Southeast States including Florida to Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
At least some broad severe potential exists across the region today
into tonight, although details lack clarity even in the relative
short term. Considerable convection is ongoing at midday from
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with other more scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms, along with widespread cloudiness,
within the broad pre-cold front warm sector.
Height falls will be weak/nil across the Southeast, and low-level
winds will tend to weaken over time, but nonetheless remain
moderately strong, with the longest duration of robust wind profiles
persisting across the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through tonight.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may further develop and
diurnally intensify this afternoon through early evening within the
warm conveyor region from the Georgia/South Carolina border area
northward into North Carolina/possibly Virginia in the wake of a
leading swath of showers. Boundary-layer heating is expected to be
limited and mid-level lapse rates weak, suggesting that MLCAPE
should only reach around 500 J/kg. This may be enough to support a
conditional supercell threat near the advancing cold front and/or
along the coastal Carolinas tonight, given the favorable low-level
SRH. An isolated damaging wind/tornado risk would be the primary
risks across the broad region.
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