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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

SPC Mar 23, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated damaging winds are possible across the Midwest and Upper Ohio Valley vicinity this afternoon. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging winds may occur across the Southeast today through tonight. The previous outlook thinking matches up well with current observations, and little change was made for this update. Ohio/West Virginia update, see mesoscale discussion 325. South Georgia/North Florida update, see mesoscale discussion 323. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022/ ...Ohio Valley/Midwest... A substantial shortwave impulse over the Ark-La-Miss will move northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes through this evening. An attendant intense mid-level speed max (at or above 110-kt at 500-mb) will become centered from central Kentucky to the northern Mississippi/Alabama border area by 21Z. While the primary surface cyclone will drift east-northeast across parts of northern Illinois, a secondary low should develop within the exit region of the mid-level jet across west-central to northwest Ohio along the arcing baroclinic zone. Cloud breaks to the west of stratiform rain across the central Appalachians should yield a pocket of modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg), as a corridor of mid to upper 50s surface dew points become established within the thermal axis near the Ohio/West Virginia/Kentucky border area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through early/mid afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau and spread northeast across the Upper Ohio Valley. Very strong effective shear in excess of 70 kt should yield a highly elongated hodograph, and foster at least a few discrete splitting supercells. Optimal low-level hodographs may only be present in the early portion of the convective life cycle within the narrow warm/moist sector, lowering confidence of a greater severe threat. Nevertheless, the presence of the surface warm front suggests a few tornadoes and scattered large hail appear possible aside from damaging winds, with this risk expected to be relatively maximized across western West Virginia into much of east/southeast Ohio. On the northwest periphery of the risk area(s), in closer relative proximity to the surface low, some severe storms will also be possible in vicinity of the narrow warm/moist sector across eastern/northern Indiana and west/northwest Ohio into Lower Michigan. This includes the potential for severe hail and isolated damaging winds, and possibly a couple of brief tornadoes. Regarding a tornado risk, near-boundary maximized vorticity and steep lapse rates/ample low-level CAPE may be potential compensatory factors for less supercell-favorable wind profiles with west/northwestward extent across far western Ohio into northern/eastern Indiana and Lower Michigan. ...Southeast States including Florida to Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... At least some broad severe potential exists across the region today into tonight, although details lack clarity even in the relative short term. Considerable convection is ongoing at midday from northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with other more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, along with widespread cloudiness, within the broad pre-cold front warm sector. Height falls will be weak/nil across the Southeast, and low-level winds will tend to weaken over time, but nonetheless remain moderately strong, with the longest duration of robust wind profiles persisting across the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may further develop and diurnally intensify this afternoon through early evening within the warm conveyor region from the Georgia/South Carolina border area northward into North Carolina/possibly Virginia in the wake of a leading swath of showers. Boundary-layer heating is expected to be limited and mid-level lapse rates weak, suggesting that MLCAPE should only reach around 500 J/kg. This may be enough to support a conditional supercell threat near the advancing cold front and/or along the coastal Carolinas tonight, given the favorable low-level SRH. An isolated damaging wind/tornado risk would be the primary risks across the broad region. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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