SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Southeast today. Large hail should be the main threat, but damaging
winds may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A closed upper low centered over MS/AL this morning will advance
east-northeastward across GA and the Carolinas today. At the
surface, a weak low over central AL should develop towards central
GA during the afternoon, before reforming across coastal NC late
tonight. A 50-60 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of
north/central FL, central/eastern GA and coastal SC later this
morning and afternoon.
...Southeast...
Widely scattered storms may be ongoing at the start of the period
this morning in a narrow corridor from far northeast FL into the
GA/SC border area. This activity will be aided by modest low-level
warm advection, and it may pose a threat for marginally severe hail.
Weak instability should keep the overall severe threat with this
morning convection fairly isolated. Additional storms are expected
to develop by late morning/early afternoon across parts of the
northern/central FL Peninsula, as ascent associated with the
mid-level jet overspreads this area. Cool mid-level temperatures,
modestly steepened lapse rates, and diurnal heating of a moist
low-level airmass will likely yield MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
across this region by the early afternoon. Strengthening mid-level
flow and 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support some supercell
structures posing a threat for mainly large hail. Occasional
damaging winds also appear possible. Confidence has increased enough
in this scenario occurring to include a 15% severe area for hail
across parts of north FL into coastal GA/SC where a few supercells
appear probable.
Modest low-level moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s, will reside across parts of
eastern AL into central GA today. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should
develop as diurnal heating occurs. Cold mid-level temperatures
associated with the upper low will also be present over this region.
Effective bulk shear values are not forecast to be as strong as
farther south/east, but around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear will
still support updraft organization. A mix of clusters and discrete
cells may form by early afternoon, posing a threat for marginally
severe hail and strong/gusty winds. A marginal severe risk may also
exist across parts of coastal NC this afternoon through tonight as
storms develop northeastward, but instability is forecast to remain
fairly modest over this region.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/16/2022
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