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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

SPC Mar 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. Large hail should be the main threat, but damaging winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low centered over MS/AL this morning will advance east-northeastward across GA and the Carolinas today. At the surface, a weak low over central AL should develop towards central GA during the afternoon, before reforming across coastal NC late tonight. A 50-60 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of north/central FL, central/eastern GA and coastal SC later this morning and afternoon. ...Southeast... Widely scattered storms may be ongoing at the start of the period this morning in a narrow corridor from far northeast FL into the GA/SC border area. This activity will be aided by modest low-level warm advection, and it may pose a threat for marginally severe hail. Weak instability should keep the overall severe threat with this morning convection fairly isolated. Additional storms are expected to develop by late morning/early afternoon across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula, as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads this area. Cool mid-level temperatures, modestly steepened lapse rates, and diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will likely yield MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg across this region by the early afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow and 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support some supercell structures posing a threat for mainly large hail. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible. Confidence has increased enough in this scenario occurring to include a 15% severe area for hail across parts of north FL into coastal GA/SC where a few supercells appear probable. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s, will reside across parts of eastern AL into central GA today. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should develop as diurnal heating occurs. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low will also be present over this region. Effective bulk shear values are not forecast to be as strong as farther south/east, but around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear will still support updraft organization. A mix of clusters and discrete cells may form by early afternoon, posing a threat for marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds. A marginal severe risk may also exist across parts of coastal NC this afternoon through tonight as storms develop northeastward, but instability is forecast to remain fairly modest over this region. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC