SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC...COASTAL GA AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening
across parts of the Southeast. Large hail should be the main threat,
with marginal potential for damaging gusts or a tornado.
...20z Update -- AL/GA/FL...
The Marginal and Slight risk areas have been trimmed across parts of
southeast AL, southern GA and FL with the 20z update. A dry slot
noted in water vapor imagery will continue to suppress convection
across much of northern FL into southern GA this afternoon/evening.
Additional trimming of the Marginal risk across AL is based on
observed ongoing convection and the position of the
eastward-developing surface low. Across the central FL Peninsula,
the severe probabilities have been shifted eastward as midlevel
subsidence impinges on the region and the axis of greater
instability pushes east toward the east coast. The 19z RAOB from MFL
indicates modest effective shear with steep lapse rates and large
SBCAPE. Vertical shear is likely a bit stronger to the north and
large hail still appears possible with convection over the next few
hours. Additional thunderstorm development also is expected across
SC into the evening, and a continued hail/wind threat is expected
for several more hours.
..Leitman.. 03/16/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022/
...Southeast U.S....
Upper-level low over MS/AL border region at 16z is forecast to lift
northeast to vicinity of Charlotte NC by 12z Thursday. A surface
cold front will move steadily east across eastern GA, SC and the FL
Peninsula. Clearing in the wake of overnight storms across the
central FL Peninsula will promote sufficient heating for development
of MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg this afternoon.
Shear profiles will be supportive of supercell structures with
storms developing in advance of the cold front, with a risk for
severe hail, perhaps significant if storms can maintain a more
discrete spacing, and isolated damaging winds.
Farther north across eastern GA/southern SC, abundant cloud cover
persists although some breaks in cloud cover have developed based in
latest visible imagery. A gradual increase in storm coverage is
anticipated in this area over the next few hours in the vicinity of
a NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone as large-scale ascent increases
over the area. Wind profiles will be supportive of organized storms
including supercells, with hail and isolated strong gusts possible.
Curved hodographs in the lowest 0-2 km in RAP-based forecast
soundings this afternoon would support at least some risk for a
tornado or two over far eastern GA/southern SC, especially for any
persistent/semi-discrete storm.
Farther west across eastern AL/much of GA. isolated strong/severe
storms will be possible near the upper low, where MLCAPE of 500-750
J/kg and cool mid-level thermal profiles will support a risk for
mainly hail.
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