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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

SPC Mar 15, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible through this evening over central Florida. ...20z Update... The ongoing outlook remains on track and no changes are needed with the 20z update. A cluster of strong storms just offshore from central FL Panhandle may bring some gusty winds to areas near Apalachicola in the short term. However, showers and cloud cover has resulted in weak heating and very little destabilization, limiting severe potential. Otherwise, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over central FL late this afternoon into this evening across the Slight risk area. ..Leitman.. 03/15/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022/ ...FL... A progressive and compact upper low over the Arklatex region will track eastward across the Gulf states. Numerous thunderstorms are occurring to the southeast of the upper low across the central Gulf. These storms will track eastward and approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this evening. Broken sunshine over the region along with dewpoints in the 60s will yield MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Vertical shear profiles will slowly strengthen as the MCS approaches, with forecast soundings showing favorable parameters by mid-evening for a risk of severe storms. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, but sufficient low-level shear will develop after dark for some potential of supercells ahead of the main line, posing a risk of isolated tornado or two. ...AL... The center of the aforementioned upper low is currently near TXK, with mid-level dry air wrapping around the base of the low across LA/MS. This dry air will allow partial afternoon heating into portions of western AL, where residual low-level moisture and cooling temperatures aloft will promote scattered thunderstorms. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests a small corridor of thunderstorms across western AL, where forecast soundings appear sufficient for a risk of gusty winds and hail in the strongest cores. This threat should diminish rapidly by early evening as nocturnal cooling occurs. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC