SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible
through this evening over central Florida.
...20z Update...
The ongoing outlook remains on track and no changes are needed with
the 20z update. A cluster of strong storms just offshore from
central FL Panhandle may bring some gusty winds to areas near
Apalachicola in the short term. However, showers and cloud cover has
resulted in weak heating and very little destabilization, limiting
severe potential. Otherwise, strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop over central FL late this afternoon into this
evening across the Slight risk area.
..Leitman.. 03/15/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022/
...FL...
A progressive and compact upper low over the Arklatex region will
track eastward across the Gulf states. Numerous thunderstorms are
occurring to the southeast of the upper low across the central Gulf.
These storms will track eastward and approach the west coast of the
FL Peninsula this evening. Broken sunshine over the region along
with dewpoints in the 60s will yield MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg.
Vertical shear profiles will slowly strengthen as the MCS
approaches, with forecast soundings showing favorable parameters by
mid-evening for a risk of severe storms. Damaging winds appear to
be the main threat, but sufficient low-level shear will develop
after dark for some potential of supercells ahead of the main line,
posing a risk of isolated tornado or two.
...AL...
The center of the aforementioned upper low is currently near TXK,
with mid-level dry air wrapping around the base of the low across
LA/MS. This dry air will allow partial afternoon heating into
portions of western AL, where residual low-level moisture and
cooling temperatures aloft will promote scattered thunderstorms.
Most 12z CAM guidance suggests a small corridor of thunderstorms
across western AL, where forecast soundings appear sufficient for a
risk of gusty winds and hail in the strongest cores. This threat
should diminish rapidly by early evening as nocturnal cooling
occurs.
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