SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong to damaging winds
will be possible today and tonight from parts of the central Gulf
Coast to the Florida Peninsula.
...Central Gulf Coast to Florida...
An upper trough/low should be centered over the ArkLaTex vicinity
later this morning, with an associated 50-60+ kt mid-level jet over
much of the lower MS Valley. This upper trough/low will move
eastward through the day, eventually reaching the central Gulf Coast
states late tonight. At the surface, a weak low should similarly
translate eastward across the lower MS Valley in tandem with the
upper low.
Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across
parts of southern LA/MS. The low-level airmass over this region
should only be marginally supportive of surface-based storms. But,
there will probably be sufficient instability in combination with
strong deep-layer shear for storm organization. Isolated damaging
winds and a brief tornado or two should be the main threats for a
couple of hours at the start of the period (12-14Z), before
convection generally moves offshore.
Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with storms advancing
eastward across coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through
the afternoon. However, most guidance suggests the better low-level
moisture and related instability will remain offshore. A large mass
of convection is forecast to move from the central to eastern Gulf
of Mexico through the day. This activity should approach the FL Gulf
Coast by this evening.
Low-level moisture will return northward over much of the FL
Peninsula today, and there should be adequate instability across the
southern/central peninsula to maintain some intensity to these
storms. Deep-layer shear also appears strong enough for updraft
organization. Given a probable linear/cluster mode, isolated
damaging winds should be the main threat as storms move eastward
across the FL Peninsula this evening/tonight. A brief, embedded
tornado also appears possible, but the low-level flow is forecast to
remain rather weak.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/15/2022
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