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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, March 14, 2022

SPC Mar 14, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may produce large to very large hail, isolated wind damage, and a tornado or two across parts of north-central/northeast Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, and western Louisiana. No changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. Please refer to MCD #253 for further details. ..Hart.. 03/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/ ...Southern OK...Central/East/Southeast TX...Northwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows low 50s dewpoints have reached north TX, with mid 50s farther south over southeast TX. A few 60 degree dewpoints exist along the middle TX Coast. Moisture return will continue throughout the day, supported by mass response ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This shortwave, currently moving through the southern High Plains, is forecast to continue east-southeastward throughout the day, eventually interacting with the returning moist air mass to produce thunderstorms this evening. Low 50s dewpoints will likely reach into southern OK by later this afternoon, amid surface temperatures in the low 70s. These relatively modest low-level thermodynamic conditions will be augmented by cold temperatures aloft (and resulting steep mid-level lapse rates) to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg). Initial storm development is anticipated this afternoon as the cold front attendant to the shortwave encounters this uncapped and moderately buoyant airmass along the I-35 corridor. Some initially discrete storms are possible, but the linear forcing should result in a quick transition to linear storm structure. This line of storms should then move eastward in tandem with the cold front across southeast OK and northeast TX, while also expanding southward along the front into more of central and east TX over time. Given the cold temperatures aloft, hail will be possible within these storms, particularly the initial more cellular development and with any updraft augmentation that occurs as the line interacts with any cells ahead of it. Some very large (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) hail is possible. In addition to the threat for hail, strong wind gusts are also possible, particularly if the line becomes more organized. Most likely corridor for strong winds appears to be from eastern portions of the Metroplex to TYR. East of TYR, increasing stabilization, both as a result of nocturnal cooling and less low-level moisture advection, should result in a gradually diminishing risk for damaging wind gusts. Veering low-level wind profiles also suggest embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible. A somewhat separate severe potential may manifest ahead of the front within the warm sector over East TX. Ascent resultant from warm-air advection augmented by increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may result in a few discrete supercells. Some questions remain about the extent of the destabilization, but any cells that do mature in the warm sector should be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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