SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce large to very large hail, isolated wind
damage, and a tornado or two across parts of north-central/northeast
Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, and western
Louisiana.
No changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. Please refer to
MCD #253 for further details.
..Hart.. 03/14/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/
...Southern OK...Central/East/Southeast TX...Northwest LA...
Recent surface analysis shows low 50s dewpoints have reached north
TX, with mid 50s farther south over southeast TX. A few 60 degree
dewpoints exist along the middle TX Coast. Moisture return will
continue throughout the day, supported by mass response ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. This shortwave, currently moving
through the southern High Plains, is forecast to continue
east-southeastward throughout the day, eventually interacting with
the returning moist air mass to produce thunderstorms this evening.
Low 50s dewpoints will likely reach into southern OK by later this
afternoon, amid surface temperatures in the low 70s. These
relatively modest low-level thermodynamic conditions will be
augmented by cold temperatures aloft (and resulting steep mid-level
lapse rates) to support moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg). Initial storm development is anticipated this
afternoon as the cold front attendant to the shortwave encounters
this uncapped and moderately buoyant airmass along the I-35
corridor. Some initially discrete storms are possible, but the
linear forcing should result in a quick transition to linear storm
structure. This line of storms should then move eastward in tandem
with the cold front across southeast OK and northeast TX, while also
expanding southward along the front into more of central and east TX
over time.
Given the cold temperatures aloft, hail will be possible within
these storms, particularly the initial more cellular development and
with any updraft augmentation that occurs as the line interacts with
any cells ahead of it. Some very large (i.e. greater than 2" in
diameter) hail is possible. In addition to the threat for hail,
strong wind gusts are also possible, particularly if the line
becomes more organized. Most likely corridor for strong winds
appears to be from eastern portions of the Metroplex to TYR. East of
TYR, increasing stabilization, both as a result of nocturnal cooling
and less low-level moisture advection, should result in a gradually
diminishing risk for damaging wind gusts. Veering low-level wind
profiles also suggest embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible.
A somewhat separate severe potential may manifest ahead of the front
within the warm sector over East TX. Ascent resultant from warm-air
advection augmented by increasing large-scale ascent attendant to
the shortwave trough may result in a few discrete supercells. Some
questions remain about the extent of the destabilization, but any
cells that do mature in the warm sector should be supercellular and
capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes.
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