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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, March 14, 2022

SPC Mar 14, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the Great Plains on Thursday as moisture return begins in the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development may take place Thursday evening and overnight ahead of the system from the Arklatex to the lower Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to move into western parts of the Mississippi Valley on Friday as a cold front advances southeastward across the Southeast. Thunderstorms associated with an isolated severe threat will be possible ahead of the front during the day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. As with the last system, this system appears to have weak moisture return as the main limitation. The stronger instability is forecast to remain offshore across the northern Gulf of Mexico, which could keep any severe threat marginal overland. Also, there is considerable spread in the ensemble solutions concerning the track of the upper-level trough and surface low for the Thursday and Friday time frame. On Saturday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. A moist airmass should be in place ahead of the front across the Florida Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the central and northern Florida Peninsula, where a marginal severe threat could develop during the day. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop across the Desert Southwest and move eastward into the southern Plains. A mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to stream northward into the southern Plains, where the models show a corridor of moderate instability in place by Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms would be possible along the western edge of the stronger instability from north-central Texas northward into Kansas. Storms would be aided by a band of large-scale ascent forecast to move across the southern and central Plains during the afternoon. This combined with strong deep-layer shear would support supercell development Monday afternoon and evening along a southern Plains dryline. There is quite a bit of uncertainty concerning the described scenario. Upper-level lows in the southwest tend to come out deeper, slower and further south than the model forecasts show. If this happens, then a severe threat in the southern and central Plains could be delayed until beyond the end of the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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