Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the
Great Plains on Thursday as moisture return begins in the southern
Plains. Thunderstorm development may take place Thursday evening and
overnight ahead of the system from the Arklatex to the lower
Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to move into western
parts of the Mississippi Valley on Friday as a cold front advances
southeastward across the Southeast. Thunderstorms associated with an
isolated severe threat will be possible ahead of the front during
the day from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle and
southwest Georgia. As with the last system, this system appears to
have weak moisture return as the main limitation. The stronger
instability is forecast to remain offshore across the northern Gulf
of Mexico, which could keep any severe threat marginal overland.
Also, there is considerable spread in the ensemble solutions
concerning the track of the upper-level trough and surface low for
the Thursday and Friday time frame.
On Saturday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward into
the eastern Gulf Coast states. A moist airmass should be in place
ahead of the front across the Florida Peninsula. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across the central and northern
Florida Peninsula, where a marginal severe threat could develop
during the day.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop
across the Desert Southwest and move eastward into the southern
Plains. A mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward into the
southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture
is forecast to stream northward into the southern Plains, where the
models show a corridor of moderate instability in place by Monday
afternoon. Thunderstorms would be possible along the western edge of
the stronger instability from north-central Texas northward into
Kansas. Storms would be aided by a band of large-scale ascent
forecast to move across the southern and central Plains during the
afternoon. This combined with strong deep-layer shear would support
supercell development Monday afternoon and evening along a southern
Plains dryline.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty concerning the described
scenario. Upper-level lows in the southwest tend to come out deeper,
slower and further south than the model forecasts show. If this
happens, then a severe threat in the southern and central Plains
could be delayed until beyond the end of the Day 4 to 8 period.
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