SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce large to very large hail, isolated wind
damage, and a tornado or two across parts of northeastern Texas,
southeastern Oklahoma, and the ArkLaTex.
...Synopsis...
Modest moisture return is ongoing across portions of the western
Gulf. The 00Z soundings at CRP and BRO have captured the early
stages of moist layer development. As a shortwave trough, now near
the Four Corners on water vapor imagery, continues southeast,
moisture return will continue through the overnight and through the
day Monday. Severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of North
Texas into the ArkLatex vicinity, primarily during late afternoon
into the evening.
...Portions of North and northeastern Texas...
During the afternoon, a cold front will continue southward. By early
evening, the boundary is expected to be oriented roughly north-south
in the vicinity of I-35. With very slow eastward progress of the
front, linear forcing should not be overly strong initially.
Effective shear of 35-40 kts across the boundary should favor
supercell development by 00-01Z. Though moisture will be limited
(mid to upper 50s F dewpoints), very cold temperatures aloft will
promote 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Large hail will likely be the primary
threat. Given initially discrete storms, 2-inch hail will be
possible within the first couple hours of the convective cycle. Weak
surface low development and an increase in the low-level jet will
lead to strong low-level wind profiles, veering with height, that
will support a tornado or two, also with the initial supercells. The
cold front will begin to accelerate eastward by mid-evening. This
should lead to a transition to more linear storm modes and an
increase in damaging-gust potential.
...Southern Louisiana...
A weak warm front will develop as the surface low continues
southeastward through the evening. Scattered storms are expected to
move onshore late in the period. Wind profiles will favor rotating
storms. A low-end risk for a tornado and isolated wind/hail will
exist near the shore. Storms moving farther inland will pose a
lesser threat due to more limited buoyancy and less favorable
low-level thermodynamic profiles.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 03/14/2022
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