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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, March 14, 2022

SPC Mar 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may produce large to very large hail, isolated wind damage, and a tornado or two across parts of northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... Modest moisture return is ongoing across portions of the western Gulf. The 00Z soundings at CRP and BRO have captured the early stages of moist layer development. As a shortwave trough, now near the Four Corners on water vapor imagery, continues southeast, moisture return will continue through the overnight and through the day Monday. Severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of North Texas into the ArkLatex vicinity, primarily during late afternoon into the evening. ...Portions of North and northeastern Texas... During the afternoon, a cold front will continue southward. By early evening, the boundary is expected to be oriented roughly north-south in the vicinity of I-35. With very slow eastward progress of the front, linear forcing should not be overly strong initially. Effective shear of 35-40 kts across the boundary should favor supercell development by 00-01Z. Though moisture will be limited (mid to upper 50s F dewpoints), very cold temperatures aloft will promote 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Large hail will likely be the primary threat. Given initially discrete storms, 2-inch hail will be possible within the first couple hours of the convective cycle. Weak surface low development and an increase in the low-level jet will lead to strong low-level wind profiles, veering with height, that will support a tornado or two, also with the initial supercells. The cold front will begin to accelerate eastward by mid-evening. This should lead to a transition to more linear storm modes and an increase in damaging-gust potential. ...Southern Louisiana... A weak warm front will develop as the surface low continues southeastward through the evening. Scattered storms are expected to move onshore late in the period. Wind profiles will favor rotating storms. A low-end risk for a tornado and isolated wind/hail will exist near the shore. Storms moving farther inland will pose a lesser threat due to more limited buoyancy and less favorable low-level thermodynamic profiles. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 03/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC