SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds may persist with storms across far southern Florida for
a few more hours, but the threat area is rapidly decreasing in size.
...South Florida...
A line of convection, currently producing very little lightning,
continues to move rapidly east across south Florida, and will affect
the Miami area as well as the Keys over the next couple hours. While
storms within the line are currently low topped, mean wind speeds in
the lowest 1 km are around 30-35 kt, suggesting wind gusts of that
magnitude will be likely. Locally higher gusts may occur prior to
the cold front pushing offshore later this afternoon.
..Jewell.. 03/12/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022/
...Eastern NC...
A strong cold front and an accompanying line of intense
thunderstorms that affect the Carolinas this morning has move
offshore, ending the severe threat in that area.
...Central FL...
Farther south, the same cold front is sagging slowly southward
across central FL. Scattered strong storms continue along this
line, with occasional strong/damaging wind gusts being reported.
12z model guidance suggests this activity will weaken during the
afternoon as large scale support departs the region. Recent IR
cloud top and lightning trends suggest this trend has already
started. Nevertheless, an isolated severe threat may persist into
mid-afternoon.
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