SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
possible from northern Florida and southeast Georgia into the
eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. The main threat is expected
Saturday morning.
...FL to the southern Mid-Atlantic...
Southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the lower
MS Valley late this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this
feature well, and large-scale forcing for ascent will spread into
the southern Appalachians as intensifying height falls respond to
this feature.
Over the last few hours, a squall line has gradually evolved across
AL along the leading edge of stronger forcing. This linear MCS will
continue maturing and race northeast ahead of the front to a
position from central NC into eastern SC at 12/12z. A more broken
line of convection, with possible supercells should extend along the
southern influence of the short wave across northern FL into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period.
Latest model guidance suggests an intense 850 LLJ (80kt+) will
translate across the Carolinas into southeast VA in advance of the
surface front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong flow just off
the surface and damaging winds appear likely with surface-based
convection that develops within the low-buoyancy environment. While
damaging winds are the primary threat, forecast shear certainly
supports rotation and some tornado threat will be noted with this
activity, perhaps as embedded supercells along the line.
Quick-moving squall line will shift off the Carolina Coast by 18z,
though a broken line of weakening convection may trail across the
central FL Peninsula, well south of the aforementioned short wave.
Only minor changes have been made to earlier forecast, namely to
lower severe probabilities somewhat across the southern Mid-Atlantic
where poor boundary layer recovery will limit buoyancy very early in
the period.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/12/2022
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