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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, March 12, 2022

SPC Mar 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible from northern Florida and southeast Georgia into the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. The main threat is expected Saturday morning. ...FL to the southern Mid-Atlantic... Southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the lower MS Valley late this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and large-scale forcing for ascent will spread into the southern Appalachians as intensifying height falls respond to this feature. Over the last few hours, a squall line has gradually evolved across AL along the leading edge of stronger forcing. This linear MCS will continue maturing and race northeast ahead of the front to a position from central NC into eastern SC at 12/12z. A more broken line of convection, with possible supercells should extend along the southern influence of the short wave across northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests an intense 850 LLJ (80kt+) will translate across the Carolinas into southeast VA in advance of the surface front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong flow just off the surface and damaging winds appear likely with surface-based convection that develops within the low-buoyancy environment. While damaging winds are the primary threat, forecast shear certainly supports rotation and some tornado threat will be noted with this activity, perhaps as embedded supercells along the line. Quick-moving squall line will shift off the Carolina Coast by 18z, though a broken line of weakening convection may trail across the central FL Peninsula, well south of the aforementioned short wave. Only minor changes have been made to earlier forecast, namely to lower severe probabilities somewhat across the southern Mid-Atlantic where poor boundary layer recovery will limit buoyancy very early in the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/12/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC