SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are possible across the central
and northeastern Gulf Coast to the Carolinas and northern Florida.
The period of greatest concern appears to be late tonight into
Saturday morning.
...20z Update...
The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update have been to
trim the western edge of the general thunderstorm area across parts
of central/eastern TX. A few strong thunderstorms have been
occurring across parts of northern FL this afternoon within the
Slight risk area along the stationary surface boundary. Moderate
heating ahead of the boundary is aiding in MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg amid 35-45 kt effective shear. Large-scale ascent
remains weak across the region, but thunderstorms are expected to
continue developing in a strong warm advection regime. A couple of
strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging gusts, hail and/or
a tornado will be possible through early evening. For latest short
term severe potential, reference MCD 0239. Otherwise, the bulk of
the severe threat is still expected tonight into early Saturday
morning from the central Gulf coast into the Carolinas.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022/
...Southeast States...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Water
vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward
across NM. This feature is forecast to rotate into the lower MS
valley tonight. Large scale lift and strengthening wind fields
ahead of the trough will result in a large area of increasing severe
threat - mainly after dark.
A large and persistent band of thunderstorms extends across the
northeast Gulf of Mexico into north FL. This convection has
significantly modified the air mass over the region, and is limiting
the northward return of rich Gulf moisture. Most models
substantially weaken the activity by late afternoon allowing rapid
return of 70s dewpoints into parts of southern GA and the northern
FL. While this scenario remains quite possible, confidence in how
far north the tropical air mass can return is in question. Will not
adjust the ENH risk area at this time and defer to later updates.
Otherwise, it appears the main severe risk will develop over
southern LA/MS after dark as the upper wave approaches. This
activity will spread eastward along the Gulf coast and into the ENH
risk area after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest low-level
shear will strengthen through the night ahead of the cold front,
with a risk of supercells and tornadoes in those areas where the
rich Gulf moisture can return. Farther north, across parts of GA
and the Carolinas, bowing structures capable of damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes appear to be the main threat.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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