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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, March 11, 2022

SPC Mar 11, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are possible across the central and northeastern Gulf Coast to the Carolinas and northern Florida. The period of greatest concern appears to be late tonight into Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update have been to trim the western edge of the general thunderstorm area across parts of central/eastern TX. A few strong thunderstorms have been occurring across parts of northern FL this afternoon within the Slight risk area along the stationary surface boundary. Moderate heating ahead of the boundary is aiding in MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg amid 35-45 kt effective shear. Large-scale ascent remains weak across the region, but thunderstorms are expected to continue developing in a strong warm advection regime. A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging gusts, hail and/or a tornado will be possible through early evening. For latest short term severe potential, reference MCD 0239. Otherwise, the bulk of the severe threat is still expected tonight into early Saturday morning from the central Gulf coast into the Carolinas. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022/ ...Southeast States... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward across NM. This feature is forecast to rotate into the lower MS valley tonight. Large scale lift and strengthening wind fields ahead of the trough will result in a large area of increasing severe threat - mainly after dark. A large and persistent band of thunderstorms extends across the northeast Gulf of Mexico into north FL. This convection has significantly modified the air mass over the region, and is limiting the northward return of rich Gulf moisture. Most models substantially weaken the activity by late afternoon allowing rapid return of 70s dewpoints into parts of southern GA and the northern FL. While this scenario remains quite possible, confidence in how far north the tropical air mass can return is in question. Will not adjust the ENH risk area at this time and defer to later updates. Otherwise, it appears the main severe risk will develop over southern LA/MS after dark as the upper wave approaches. This activity will spread eastward along the Gulf coast and into the ENH risk area after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest low-level shear will strengthen through the night ahead of the cold front, with a risk of supercells and tornadoes in those areas where the rich Gulf moisture can return. Farther north, across parts of GA and the Carolinas, bowing structures capable of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes appear to be the main threat. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC