SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FL INTO SOUTHERN GA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind, isolated hail, and a few
tornadoes are possible across parts of the Gulf States to the
Carolinas. A few strong storms are possible during the day, but the
greatest threat appears to be very late Friday night into Saturday
morning.
...Gulf Coast to Carolinas...
Low-latitude short-wave trough digging across AZ will shift into
west TX by mid day as an 85kt speed max rotates across northern
Mexico. This feature will translate across the lower MS Valley
overnight with speeds expected to increase to near 110kt over
southern MS/AL by daybreak. Very strong flow will spread across the
southern Appalachians into the southern middle Atlantic by 12/12z.
Late this evening, primary surface frontal zone remained well
offshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered convection is
beginning to increase north of this boundary over the last few
hours, and a more expansive corridor of warm-advection thunderstorm
clusters will evolve over the next 6-12hr. With time this boundary
will advance north but extensive precipitation should retard air
mass destabilization appreciably inland. Latest model guidance
suggests eastern-most lobe of LLJ will increase across the
northeastern Gulf into northern FL/southern GA. This will focus a
considerable amount of convection across this region during the
first half of the period. Given the strength of the wind fields,
supercells will likely be embedded within a broader zone of
convection. While some tornado threat will be noted with this early
activity, somewhat greater destabilization is expected ahead of the
main front/developing cyclone later in the evening.
Current thinking is scattered late afternoon convection should
evolve over southern LA ahead of the front/approaching speed max.
This activity will likely be supercellular in nature and subsequent
movement should track east-northeast along the warm front along the
central Gulf Coast. Shear profiles will increase across this region
during the overnight period and ample buoyancy should have advanced
inland across northern FL for a greater threat for tornadoes, along
with damaging winds. Less certainty exists for surface-based
convection farther inland along the cold front over AL. Even so,
forecast soundings suggest adequate, near-surface based instability
for the potential for damaging winds with frontal convection.
Increasing large-scale support will likely contribute to a forced
squall line that will track across GA into the western Carolinas
prior to sunrise.
Additionally, have opted to increase severe probabilities over
eastern NC for late in the period as very strong wind fields will
evolve over this region prior to sunrise. It's not entirely clear
how much convection will develop before the end of the period but
very strong shear warrants attention across this region if storms do
develop.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/11/2022
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