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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, March 11, 2022

SPC Mar 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FL INTO SOUTHERN GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Gulf States to the Carolinas. A few strong storms are possible during the day, but the greatest threat appears to be very late Friday night into Saturday morning. ...Gulf Coast to Carolinas... Low-latitude short-wave trough digging across AZ will shift into west TX by mid day as an 85kt speed max rotates across northern Mexico. This feature will translate across the lower MS Valley overnight with speeds expected to increase to near 110kt over southern MS/AL by daybreak. Very strong flow will spread across the southern Appalachians into the southern middle Atlantic by 12/12z. Late this evening, primary surface frontal zone remained well offshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered convection is beginning to increase north of this boundary over the last few hours, and a more expansive corridor of warm-advection thunderstorm clusters will evolve over the next 6-12hr. With time this boundary will advance north but extensive precipitation should retard air mass destabilization appreciably inland. Latest model guidance suggests eastern-most lobe of LLJ will increase across the northeastern Gulf into northern FL/southern GA. This will focus a considerable amount of convection across this region during the first half of the period. Given the strength of the wind fields, supercells will likely be embedded within a broader zone of convection. While some tornado threat will be noted with this early activity, somewhat greater destabilization is expected ahead of the main front/developing cyclone later in the evening. Current thinking is scattered late afternoon convection should evolve over southern LA ahead of the front/approaching speed max. This activity will likely be supercellular in nature and subsequent movement should track east-northeast along the warm front along the central Gulf Coast. Shear profiles will increase across this region during the overnight period and ample buoyancy should have advanced inland across northern FL for a greater threat for tornadoes, along with damaging winds. Less certainty exists for surface-based convection farther inland along the cold front over AL. Even so, forecast soundings suggest adequate, near-surface based instability for the potential for damaging winds with frontal convection. Increasing large-scale support will likely contribute to a forced squall line that will track across GA into the western Carolinas prior to sunrise. Additionally, have opted to increase severe probabilities over eastern NC for late in the period as very strong wind fields will evolve over this region prior to sunrise. It's not entirely clear how much convection will develop before the end of the period but very strong shear warrants attention across this region if storms do develop. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/11/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC