SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Thu Feb 24 2022
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight from Louisiana
northward into the Mid South and Ohio Valley regions.
...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.
..Smith.. 02/24/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022/
...MO/AR into the OH Valley...
A region of showers and thunderstorms currently over MO/AR is
associated with enhanced low-level warm advection atop a cold
surface air mass. Sufficient elevated CAPE suggests that isolated
lightning flashes may persist through the afternoon and evening as
the activity develops eastward across the OH Valley.
...LA/MS...
A relatively strong surface front currently extends from central LA
northeastward into southern MS. This boundary will lift northward
today, with a moist/unstable air mass spreading northward behind the
warm front. Despite MLCAPE values of 500-800 J/kg, forecast
soundings show a capping inversion around 700mb that will likely
inhibit vigorous convection this afternoon along the front. If an
isolated storm or two can form, a sufficient CAPE/shear combination
is present for a risk of gusty winds or small hail.
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