SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the western Gulf
Coast across the lower/mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions.
...MO/AR into the OH Valley...
A region of showers and thunderstorms currently over MO/AR is
associated with enhanced low-level warm advection atop a cold
surface air mass. Sufficient elevated CAPE suggests that isolated
lightning flashes may persist through the afternoon and evening as
the activity develops eastward across the OH Valley.
...LA/MS...
A relatively strong surface front currently extends from central LA
northeastward into southern MS. This boundary will lift northward
today, with a moist/unstable air mass spreading northward behind the
warm front. Despite MLCAPE values of 500-800 J/kg, forecast
soundings show a capping inversion around 700mb that will likely
inhibit vigorous convection this afternoon along the front. If an
isolated storm or two can form, a sufficient CAPE/shear combination
is present for a risk of gusty winds or small hail.
..Hart/Kerr.. 02/24/2022
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