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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

SPC Feb 22, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts, isolated tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible today over parts of middle Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern Alabama this afternoon and evening. ...Middle TN... A long-lived squall line is affecting parts of western and middle TN late this morning. This line is quickly sagging southeastward and is several hours ahead of 12z model guidance. IR satellite, lightning, and radar reflectivity trends all suggest the intensity of the line has diminished in most areas. Isolated gusty and locally damaging wind gusts will remain possible with the storms as they move across middle/eastern TN this afternoon, and there is some risk that the line will re-invigorate due to diurnal heating. However, the potential for significant intensification is uncertain. ...Northern MS/AL... By late afternoon/early evening, a few 12z CAM solutions indicate the development of widely scattered discrete thunderstorms across parts of northern MS/AL. If this scenario develops, forecast soundings suggest sufficient low-level shear and instability to pose a risk of supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, confidence is limited due to weak shortwave ridging, decreasing vertical shear with time, and subtle forcing. ..Hart/Bunting.. 02/22/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC