SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts, isolated tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible today over parts of middle Tennessee, northern
Mississippi, and northern Alabama this afternoon and evening.
...Middle TN...
A long-lived squall line is affecting parts of western and middle TN
late this morning. This line is quickly sagging southeastward and
is several hours ahead of 12z model guidance. IR satellite,
lightning, and radar reflectivity trends all suggest the intensity
of the line has diminished in most areas. Isolated gusty and
locally damaging wind gusts will remain possible with the storms as
they move across middle/eastern TN this afternoon, and there is some
risk that the line will re-invigorate due to diurnal heating.
However, the potential for significant intensification is uncertain.
...Northern MS/AL...
By late afternoon/early evening, a few 12z CAM solutions indicate
the development of widely scattered discrete thunderstorms across
parts of northern MS/AL. If this scenario develops, forecast
soundings suggest sufficient low-level shear and instability to pose
a risk of supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a
tornado or two. However, confidence is limited due to weak
shortwave ridging, decreasing vertical shear with time, and subtle
forcing.
..Hart/Bunting.. 02/22/2022
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