SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes remain possible into
this evening across northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama
into southern middle Tennessee.
...MS/AL/TN...
Convective redevelopment is underway in the wake of the decaying
squall line, both along the surface cold front in south-central AR
and atop the pre-frontal convective outflow into the Memphis
vicinity. Potential still exists for this activity to intensify as
it overtakes the leading convective outflow given the undisturbed
warm sector across much of MS has warmed into the upper 70s to mid
80s. A linear cluster mode with embedded supercell structures should
foster some threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two.
With southern extent into central MS, time-series of DGX VWP data
indicates low-level shear has weakened as previously advertised. The
decreasing spatial extent of adequately enlarged low-level
hodographs coincident with potential sustained discrete convection
(which continues to have limited confidence in occurring) suggests
no appreciable adjustment is necessary for the southeast extent of
the tornado/wind threat.
..Grams.. 02/22/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022/
...Middle TN...
A long-lived squall line is affecting parts of western and middle TN
late this morning. This line is quickly sagging southeastward and
is several hours ahead of 12z model guidance. IR satellite,
lightning, and radar reflectivity trends all suggest the intensity
of the line has diminished in most areas. Isolated gusty and
locally damaging wind gusts will remain possible with the storms as
they move across middle/eastern TN this afternoon, and there is some
risk that the line will re-invigorate due to diurnal heating.
However, the potential for significant intensification is uncertain.
...Northern MS/AL...
By late afternoon/early evening, a few 12z CAM solutions indicate
the development of widely scattered discrete thunderstorms across
parts of northern MS/AL. If this scenario develops, forecast
soundings suggest sufficient low-level shear and instability to pose
a risk of supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a
tornado or two. However, confidence is limited due to weak
shortwave ridging, decreasing vertical shear with time, and subtle
forcing.
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