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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, February 22, 2022

SPC Feb 22, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes remain possible into this evening across northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama into southern middle Tennessee. ...MS/AL/TN... Convective redevelopment is underway in the wake of the decaying squall line, both along the surface cold front in south-central AR and atop the pre-frontal convective outflow into the Memphis vicinity. Potential still exists for this activity to intensify as it overtakes the leading convective outflow given the undisturbed warm sector across much of MS has warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s. A linear cluster mode with embedded supercell structures should foster some threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two. With southern extent into central MS, time-series of DGX VWP data indicates low-level shear has weakened as previously advertised. The decreasing spatial extent of adequately enlarged low-level hodographs coincident with potential sustained discrete convection (which continues to have limited confidence in occurring) suggests no appreciable adjustment is necessary for the southeast extent of the tornado/wind threat. ..Grams.. 02/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022/ ...Middle TN... A long-lived squall line is affecting parts of western and middle TN late this morning. This line is quickly sagging southeastward and is several hours ahead of 12z model guidance. IR satellite, lightning, and radar reflectivity trends all suggest the intensity of the line has diminished in most areas. Isolated gusty and locally damaging wind gusts will remain possible with the storms as they move across middle/eastern TN this afternoon, and there is some risk that the line will re-invigorate due to diurnal heating. However, the potential for significant intensification is uncertain. ...Northern MS/AL... By late afternoon/early evening, a few 12z CAM solutions indicate the development of widely scattered discrete thunderstorms across parts of northern MS/AL. If this scenario develops, forecast soundings suggest sufficient low-level shear and instability to pose a risk of supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, confidence is limited due to weak shortwave ridging, decreasing vertical shear with time, and subtle forcing. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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