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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

SPC Feb 22, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat, wind damage, and large hail will be possible Tuesday from Arkansas northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms and a tornado risk are also possible across mainly parts of Mississippi and Alabama Tuesday evening into the overnight. ...Lower MS Valley to Lower OH Valley... Low-amplitude mid-level short-wave trough over the southern Plains is forecast to eject northeast into the OH Valley Tuesday, slightly suppressing the height fields north of the OH River. This feature will encourage a surface low to track northeast across MO/IL into southern ON by early evening. Warm sector will modify as it is drawn northeast ahead of this low-pressure system, but adequate buoyancy will likely surge across western KY into extreme southern IN supporting some severe threat into this region. Late this evening, a 500 mi elongated corridor of convection was observed from west TX-southeast OK-western AR. This activity should continue through sunrise and be ongoing at the start of the period as an intense LLJ (70+ kt) will be focused over AR by this time. Further strengthening to near 90kt is forecast by mid day as the LLJ translates downstream across KY into southwest OH. Very strong wind fields are of particular concern but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy will negate this flow field to some degree. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong flow just off the surface and this will warrant extending severe probabilities a bit downstream to account for the possibility of damaging winds with convection. Complex storm mode will be noted through the period with clusters, potential line segments, and possible embedded supercells expected from northern AR into KY. Damaging winds should be the primary threat but a few tornadoes appear possible with supercell structures. While the primary short wave/forcing will spread across the OH Valley by late afternoon, some boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the front across western TN into MS. This will aid buoyancy and the potential for isolated supercells, despite the negligible large-scale support at this latitude by late afternoon. A secondary corridor of convection should evolve across this region prior to frontal passage and wind fields will support supercells. Wind is possible with this activity along with some tornado potential. Frontal convection will linger through the overnight hours across TN, trailing southwest into central MS. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/22/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC