SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly this evening and
overnight, in a corridor from north Texas to the Ozarks and
vicinity. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.
...Discussion...
Only two minor chances were made to the previous convective outlook.
1) remove low-severe probabilities from northern LA and adjacent
counties of TX/AR/MS. The convective signal in model guidance
indicates this area will likely remain void of convection through
the end of the day 1 period. Will keep a non-zero thunderstorm risk
in the lower MS Valley but forcing will be weak and severe activity
is not expected (displaced farther west and north).
2) Opted to extend the 15-percent wind farther southwest to the
north/northwest of Abilene, TX in the TX Big Country. Recent runs
of the HRRR show convection with a signal for potential severe gusts
during the 22z-02z timeframe.
..Smith.. 02/21/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022/
...TX into Mid MS Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across
southeast AZ. Lift ahead of this feature will overspread west TX by
mid afternoon, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will be present.
High-based fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will develop,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. As this activity moves
east-northeastward into northern/central TX, it will begin to
interact with greater low-level moisture and strengthening southerly
low-level winds. This should help to intensify updrafts and
increase the risk of hail in the stronger cells. Multiple clusters
of intense storms will then persist through the evening and
overnight period, tracking across parts of southern/eastern OK,
northern AR, and southern MO. A few bowing structures and
supercells are expected along this corridor. Damaging winds appear
to be the main risk. However, sufficient low-level shear will be
present to pose a risk of a few tornadoes as well.
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