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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, February 21, 2022

SPC Feb 21, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly this evening and overnight, in a corridor from north Texas to the Ozarks and vicinity. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Discussion... Only two minor chances were made to the previous convective outlook. 1) remove low-severe probabilities from northern LA and adjacent counties of TX/AR/MS. The convective signal in model guidance indicates this area will likely remain void of convection through the end of the day 1 period. Will keep a non-zero thunderstorm risk in the lower MS Valley but forcing will be weak and severe activity is not expected (displaced farther west and north). 2) Opted to extend the 15-percent wind farther southwest to the north/northwest of Abilene, TX in the TX Big Country. Recent runs of the HRRR show convection with a signal for potential severe gusts during the 22z-02z timeframe. ..Smith.. 02/21/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022/ ...TX into Mid MS Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across southeast AZ. Lift ahead of this feature will overspread west TX by mid afternoon, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will be present. High-based fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will develop, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. As this activity moves east-northeastward into northern/central TX, it will begin to interact with greater low-level moisture and strengthening southerly low-level winds. This should help to intensify updrafts and increase the risk of hail in the stronger cells. Multiple clusters of intense storms will then persist through the evening and overnight period, tracking across parts of southern/eastern OK, northern AR, and southern MO. A few bowing structures and supercells are expected along this corridor. Damaging winds appear to be the main risk. However, sufficient low-level shear will be present to pose a risk of a few tornadoes as well. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC