SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE OZARKS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly this evening and
overnight, in a corridor from north Texas to the Ozarks and
vicinity. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.
...TX into Mid MS Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across
southeast AZ. Lift ahead of this feature will overspread west TX by
mid afternoon, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will be present.
High-based fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will develop,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. As this activity moves
east-northeastward into northern/central TX, it will begin to
interact with greater low-level moisture and strengthening southerly
low-level winds. This should help to intensify updrafts and
increase the risk of hail in the stronger cells. Multiple clusters
of intense storms will then persist through the evening and
overnight period, tracking across parts of southern/eastern OK,
northern AR, and southern MO. A few bowing structures and
supercells are expected along this corridor. Damaging winds appear
to be the main risk. However, sufficient low-level shear will be
present to pose a risk of a few tornadoes as well.
..Hart/Moore.. 02/21/2022
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