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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, February 2, 2022

SPC Feb 2, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Wed Feb 02 2022 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States today and tonight. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments were made across parts of central/south-central Texas related to isolated elevated thunderstorm potential this afternoon into evening. Farther east, some minor concern continues for a few near-surface-based storms late tonight/early Thursday (roughly 10Z-12Z) near the southeast-advancing cold front and associated deepening frontal wave across southwest/south-central Louisiana. However, forecast soundings tend to suggest that some boundary layer inhibition will persist and/or that frontal undercutting will occur through 12Z/early Thursday. ..Guyer.. 02/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022/ Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight along a cold front sagging into east TX and the lower MS Valley. Other isolated thunderstorms are possible beneath a cold upper trough over parts of AZ/NM. ...Southwest LA Late tonight... One small area remains a minor concern for strong storms late tonight over parts of southwest LA. Southerly low-level winds are expected to maintain dewpoints in the mid 60s as the surface cold front approaches after midnight. One or two of the 12z CAM solutions show a discrete storm or two in this area before 03/12z. However the consensus of guidance suggests that overnight storms in this area will be post-frontal, and that the risk of stronger and more organized thunderstorms will develop after 12z and farther east. Therefore will maintain less than 5%/2% severe/tornado probabilities, but will continue to re-assess the potential with later updates. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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