SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Wed Feb 02 2022
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States today and tonight.
...20Z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made across parts of
central/south-central Texas related to isolated elevated
thunderstorm potential this afternoon into evening. Farther east,
some minor concern continues for a few near-surface-based storms
late tonight/early Thursday (roughly 10Z-12Z) near the
southeast-advancing cold front and associated deepening frontal wave
across southwest/south-central Louisiana. However, forecast
soundings tend to suggest that some boundary layer inhibition will
persist and/or that frontal undercutting will occur through
12Z/early Thursday.
..Guyer.. 02/02/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022/
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight
along a cold front sagging into east TX and the lower MS Valley.
Other isolated thunderstorms are possible beneath a cold upper
trough over parts of AZ/NM.
...Southwest LA Late tonight...
One small area remains a minor concern for strong storms late
tonight over parts of southwest LA. Southerly low-level winds are
expected to maintain dewpoints in the mid 60s as the surface cold
front approaches after midnight. One or two of the 12z CAM
solutions show a discrete storm or two in this area before 03/12z.
However the consensus of guidance suggests that overnight storms in
this area will be post-frontal, and that the risk of stronger and
more organized thunderstorms will develop after 12z and farther
east. Therefore will maintain less than 5%/2% severe/tornado
probabilities, but will continue to re-assess the potential with
later updates.
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