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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, February 3, 2022

SPC Feb 3, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today into this evening in parts of the Deep South. ...LA/MS/AL/GA... The morning surface analysis shows a cold front moving southeastward across MS and southeast LA. Ahead of the front, southerly low-level winds are helping to spread mid 60s dewpoints northward across MS/AL. Cloud cover is widespread across the region, but it appears likely that surface temperatures will climb into the lower 70s over much of the area, with forecast soundings suggesting sufficient surface-based instability for a risk of a few rotating storms. It appears from CAM guidance that the bulk of storms will be along the advancing front, with wind damage likely to be the main risk. However, the low-level jet structure and weak inhibition in the warm sector suggests some risk of a few discrete cells immediately ahead of the line through the afternoon. If these storms form, some risk of tornadoes would also ensue. Activity will spread northeastward during the afternoon and evening into eastern AL and eventually northwest GA before encountering weaker instability. Please refer to recent MCD #120 for further short-term details. ..Hart/Jewell.. 02/03/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC