SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Thu Feb 03 2022
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are
possible today into this evening in parts of the Deep South.
...LA/MS/AL/GA...
The morning surface analysis shows a cold front moving southeastward
across MS and southeast LA. Ahead of the front, southerly low-level
winds are helping to spread mid 60s dewpoints northward across
MS/AL. Cloud cover is widespread across the region, but it appears
likely that surface temperatures will climb into the lower 70s over
much of the area, with forecast soundings suggesting sufficient
surface-based instability for a risk of a few rotating storms. It
appears from CAM guidance that the bulk of storms will be along the
advancing front, with wind damage likely to be the main risk.
However, the low-level jet structure and weak inhibition in the warm
sector suggests some risk of a few discrete cells immediately ahead
of the line through the afternoon. If these storms form, some risk
of tornadoes would also ensue. Activity will spread northeastward
during the afternoon and evening into eastern AL and eventually
northwest GA before encountering weaker instability.
Please refer to recent MCD #120 for further short-term details.
..Hart/Jewell.. 02/03/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SJKq0L
