SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States today and tonight.
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight
along a cold front sagging into east TX and the lower MS Valley.
Other isolated thunderstorms are possible beneath a cold upper
trough over parts of AZ/NM.
...Southwest LA Late tonight...
One small area remains a minor concern for strong storms late
tonight over parts of southwest LA. Southerly low-level winds are
expected to maintain dewpoints in the mid 60s as the surface cold
front approaches after midnight. One or two of the 12z CAM
solutions show a discrete storm or two in this area before 03/12z.
However the consensus of guidance suggests that overnight storms in
this area will be post-frontal, and that the risk of stronger and
more organized thunderstorms will develop after 12z and farther
east. Therefore will maintain less than 5%/2% severe/tornado
probabilities, but will continue to re-assess the potential with
later updates.
..Hart/Wendt.. 02/02/2022
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