Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Fri Jan 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Monday/D4, a large and deep upper trough will exist over the
northeastern part of the CONUS, with cool/dry air pushing south
behind a cold front. This front will stretch from the central Gulf
of Mexico into the western Atlantic, with the only instability over
the FL Peninsula. While a few showers or weak thunderstorms will be
possible over FL during the day, severe weather is unlikely due to
weak instability and rapidly veering low-level winds.
For Tuesday/D5 through Thursday/D7, the entire CONUS is expected to
be void of thunderstorms due to a large surface high over the
central and eastern states. Minor thunderstorms chances may develop
over parts of TX toward Friday/D8 as an upper low moves from the
southwestern states eastward, but severe weather is clearly unlikely
due to very weak instability. Overall, models show predictability
issues beyond Thursday/D7 with the movement of the southwestern
upper low and further trough development across the West.
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