SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Fri Jan 07 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts will be possible today across parts of east
Texas and western Louisiana. Marginally severe hail will also be
possible in parts of the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley.
...East Texas/Western Louisiana...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley as an upper-level trough moves
across the western U.S. A belt of strong low-level flow will exist
over the eastern part of the southern Plains. This will result in
moisture advection today across much of eastern Texas and Louisiana.
In response, surface dewpoints will increase in the 60s F across
southeast Texas by this afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent should
remain minimal across southeast Texas, surface heating and
increasing low-level convergence should result in scattered
convection this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings around Houston
late this afternoon have 0-3 km shear around 200 m2/s2 but keep 0-6
km shear near 30 knots. This wind profile would support a marginal
tornado threat with cells that rotate. If there are numerous cell
interactions, this could be a limiting factor keeping updrafts from
becoming too strong. At this point, will keep a marginal risk mainly
due to the fact that large-scale ascent will remain weak and
deep-layer shear will be modest.
...Arklatex/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A broad low-level jet will move northeastward into the Ozarks today
as mid-level flow becomes more southwesterly from the Arklatex into
the mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level jet will result in
moisture advection across the Arklatex from late this afternoon into
this evening. In response, MUCAPE is forecast to increase into the
1000 to 1200 J/kg range. This combined with lift associated with the
low-level jet will result in scattered thunderstorm development.
Convective coverage is expected to increase as storms move
east-northeastward from the Arklatex into the mid Mississippi Valley
late this evening into the overnight period. Although a low-level
inversion will be present, instability in the mid-levels may be
enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. Any hail threat should
be marginal.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/08/2022
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