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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, January 8, 2022

SPC Jan 8, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Jan 07 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be possible today across parts of east Texas and western Louisiana. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas/Western Louisiana... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley as an upper-level trough moves across the western U.S. A belt of strong low-level flow will exist over the eastern part of the southern Plains. This will result in moisture advection today across much of eastern Texas and Louisiana. In response, surface dewpoints will increase in the 60s F across southeast Texas by this afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent should remain minimal across southeast Texas, surface heating and increasing low-level convergence should result in scattered convection this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings around Houston late this afternoon have 0-3 km shear around 200 m2/s2 but keep 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. This wind profile would support a marginal tornado threat with cells that rotate. If there are numerous cell interactions, this could be a limiting factor keeping updrafts from becoming too strong. At this point, will keep a marginal risk mainly due to the fact that large-scale ascent will remain weak and deep-layer shear will be modest. ...Arklatex/Mid Mississippi Valley... A broad low-level jet will move northeastward into the Ozarks today as mid-level flow becomes more southwesterly from the Arklatex into the mid Mississippi Valley. The low-level jet will result in moisture advection across the Arklatex from late this afternoon into this evening. In response, MUCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. This combined with lift associated with the low-level jet will result in scattered thunderstorm development. Convective coverage is expected to increase as storms move east-northeastward from the Arklatex into the mid Mississippi Valley late this evening into the overnight period. Although a low-level inversion will be present, instability in the mid-levels may be enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. Any hail threat should be marginal. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/08/2022 Read more LIVE: