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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

SPC Jan 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Rockies on Saturday/D4, emerging into the Plains on Sunday/D5. This will occur as a strong upper trough amplifies across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. The initial trough will quickly become absorbed by the larger amplification, which will continue through Monday/D6 before departing the northeastern states after Tuesday/D7. During the Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5 period, southerly winds will result in increasing moisture from eastern TX across the lower MS Valley, and widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of a developing cold front. This front will especially surge on Sunday/D5, and will likely undercut convection as it develops. While strengthening mid/upper flow will lead to favorable shear, predictability for anything more than low-end severe is low given the aforementioned weak instability and surging cold front. By Monday/D6, the front will clear the southeastern states, resulting in drying conditions. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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