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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

SPC Jan 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Rockies on Saturday/D4, emerging into the Plains on Sunday/D5. This will occur as a strong upper trough amplifies across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. The initial trough will quickly become absorbed by the larger amplification, which will continue through Monday/D6 before departing the northeastern states after Tuesday/D7. During the Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5 period, southerly winds will result in increasing moisture from eastern TX across the lower MS Valley, and widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of a developing cold front. This front will especially surge on Sunday/D5, and will likely undercut convection as it develops. While strengthening mid/upper flow will lead to favorable shear, predictability for anything more than low-end severe is low given the aforementioned weak instability and surging cold front. By Monday/D6, the front will clear the southeastern states, resulting in drying conditions. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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