Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move across the Rockies
on Saturday/D4, emerging into the Plains on Sunday/D5. This will
occur as a strong upper trough amplifies across the northern Plains
and Great Lakes. The initial trough will quickly become absorbed by
the larger amplification, which will continue through Monday/D6
before departing the northeastern states after Tuesday/D7.
During the Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5 period, southerly winds will
result in increasing moisture from eastern TX across the lower MS
Valley, and widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast. Mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead
of a developing cold front. This front will especially surge on
Sunday/D5, and will likely undercut convection as it develops. While
strengthening mid/upper flow will lead to favorable shear,
predictability for anything more than low-end severe is low given
the aforementioned weak instability and surging cold front. By
Monday/D6, the front will clear the southeastern states, resulting
in drying conditions.
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