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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, January 5, 2022

SPC Jan 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Tue Jan 04 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur over far eastern North Carolina on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States. ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, broad cyclonic flow across much of the northeastern CONUS will amplify, as a 100 kt jet streak moving across the Ohio River Valley works to intensify a shortwave trough situated over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a sub-1000-mb cyclone over the Great Lakes should intensify further through the day as it transits eastward into southern Quebec. Subtle confluence ahead of a cold front associated with the strong area of low pressure will belatedly draw moisture inland across much of the Eastern Seaboard, supporting a few thunderstorms across the Outer Banks and coastal vicinity. 00z RAOBS and surface observations across much of the East Coast show dry surface conditions in the wake of a prior frontal passage. With limited surface moisture available, thunderstorm chances will be confined to coastal portions of NC closest to deeper moisture return over the western Atlantic. Model projections and linear extrapolation of current buoy observations do show upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be possible near and inshore of Cape Hatteras by 12z. Aided by surface confluence ahead of the front, and weak mid-level height falls from the intensifying trough to the northwest, a few thunderstorms may develop before quickly moving offshore. In spite of meager CAPE profiles with westward extent, model soundings do show moderate wind fields with effective shear of 40-50 kts owing to the strong flow aloft. While unlikely given the limited buoyancy, a low chance for a strong wind gust may accompany any robust convection that can become established before moving offshore. Given the high uncertainty and limited potential for strong/organized convection, severe probabilities will likely remain below 5%. A few peripheral lightning strikes may also occur across southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and in the vicinity of Cape Cod. However, these areas appear to be well below the 10% general thunder threshold, given only subtle synoptic ascent and limited surface moisture/buoyancy respectively. ..Lyons/Lietman.. 01/05/2022 Read more LIVE:
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