SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from a strike or two over the central Gulf Coastal areas,
thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Discussion...
As an upper trough shifts out of the central U.S. and across the
eastern half of the country today, ridging will prevail over the
West. Overnight, as the eastern trough continues to advance, a
second trough will approach the Pacific Northwest, reaching the
coast by Friday morning.
At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift
east-northeastward across the Southeast, along a remnant baroclinic
zone across this area. As the low shifts offshore and deepens
tonight, the trailing cold front will advance eastward across the
Gulf Stream, and southward into northern Florida and the northern
Gulf of Mexico.
As mentioned in prior forecasts, scattered showers are forecast to
evolve ahead of the cold front across the central Gulf Coast
states/Southeast, and should eventually organize into low-topped
frontal convective line. However, models continue to depict warm
mid-level temperatures, with what meager CAPE is expected to evolve
likely to remain shallow, beneath the warm layer. With convective
growth thus unlikely to ascend to layers sufficiently cold for
lightning generation, few -- if any -- flashes are expected. Still,
locally gusty/convectively enhanced winds may occur with passage of
the line of showers.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.
..Goss/Moore.. 01/06/2022
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