SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Fri Jan 21 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper trough is forecast to be in place across much of
the central and eastern CONUS early Sunday. A shortwave trough is
expected to progress through this upper trough, moving from the
Lower OH Valley eastward through the central Appalachians and off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Progression of this shortwave will result in
some dampening of the upper troughing across the eastern CONUS, with
a more zonal pattern expected over the region by early Monday.
Farther west, an upper low initially centered over the northern Gulf
of California will trend more progress during the period, moving
east-northeastward across the Southwest.
A stable, continental air mass is expected to be in place over the
majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only
exception is in the vicinity of the upper low moving across the
Southwest, where cold temperatures aloft could result in limited
buoyancy. Even with the cold mid-level temperatures, dry low-levels
will likely keep any potential thunderstorm coverage less than 10
percent across the region.
..Mosier.. 01/21/2022
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