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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

SPC Jan 19, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. ...Florida Peninsula... A positively tilted, large-scale upper trough should continue advancing slowly eastward from the MS/OH Valleys to the East Coast through Friday night. Substantial low-level moisture, characterized by at least mid 60s surface dewpoints, will remain confined to the south of a warm front which is forecast to be positioned over parts of south FL Friday morning. Some differences remain in model guidance regarding how far north this rich low-level moisture will advance in tandem with the warm front across the southern/central FL Peninsula through the period. Regardless of this uncertainty, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast to gradually strengthen by late Friday afternoon with the approach of the upper trough. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells, especially across central FL, with gradually decreasing shear across south FL suggesting perhaps more of a multicellular mode with southward extent. With some diurnal heating occurring to the south of the front, at least weak instability should develop by peak afternoon heating. The forecast combination of sufficient instability and seasonably strong deep-layer shear indicates potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with any convection that can develop along/south of the front. Large-scale ascent will be somewhat lacking with the best forcing associated with the upper trough likely remaining displaced to the north of the front. Still, weak low-level convergence along the front itself and along sea breeze boundaries may support isolated convection through Friday evening. Even though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain relatively modest, temperatures at 500 mb of -10 to -12 C across this region may support marginally severe hail in addition to an isolated threat for damaging winds. Fairly weak low-level flow casts greater uncertainty on the tornado threat. But, low potential for a rotating updraft or two may exist along the front itself, where low-level winds may be locally backed to a more southeasterly component. ..Gleason.. 01/19/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC