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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, January 21, 2022

Jan 21, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

   Valid 212000Z - 221200Z


   Isolated, marginally severe hail or strong outflow gusts may occur
   through early evening across southeast Florida.

   ...20z Update...

   The ongoing outlook remains on track and no changes are needed with
   the 20z update. Agitated CU are evident across south FL as
   temperatures have warmed to near 80 F ahead of the stalled frontal
   boundary and along a weak sea breeze boundary along the southeast
   coast. Instability remains modest, with 19z mesoanalysis indicating
   around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Nevertheless, effective shear magnitudes
   greater than 35 kt reside over the region. If storms develop, a
   couple of strong to severe storms capable of locally damaging gusts
   and marginally severe hail remain possible through early evening.

   ..Leitman.. 01/21/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Jan 21 2022/

   ...Southeast FL this afternoon...
   Surface heating is underway within cloud break across southeast FL,
   immediately southeast of a stalled front.  Temperatures warming into
   the upper 70s with dewpoints near 70 F will result in MLCAPE near or
   just above 1000 J/kg this afternoon.  Background forcing for ascent
   will be weak, so localized ascent along the stalled front and any
   diffuse sea breeze boundaries suggest that only isolated storms will
   form this afternoon across southeast FL.  Midlevel lapse rates will
   not be particularly steep (6.5-7 C/km) and low-level flow will
   remain weak, but the moderate buoyancy and some stronger flow aloft
   (as reflected in effective bulk shear near 35 kt) could support a
   low-end organized/supercell storm capable of producing marginally
   severe hail and isolated strong outflow gusts later this afternoon.