SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorm areas are expected over the CONUS.
...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude, split mid-level flow will dominate the flow pattern
across the central and eastern US in the wake of the strong
northeastern trough moving offshore today. A shortwave trough
embedded within the strong northwesterly branch across the upper
Midwest will drive an Arctic Front south across the northern Plains
toward the Mississippi Valley late tonight. At the same time, a
shortwave trough within the sub-tropical jet over northern Baja
California is forecast to intensify as it moves east.
The southern stream shortwave trough evident in moisture-channel
imagery across southern CA and southwestern AZ is forecast to move
east today across portions of the Desert Southwest, reaching the
southern High plains by early Wednesday. As it does so, modest
mid-level height falls and DCVA will overspread a modifying surface
airmass across eastern AZ and western NM. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates and surface temperatures near 50 F, will provide just enough
buoyancy for the development of isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Generally less than 250 J/kg, the meager MUCAPE
and relatively weak vertical shear suggests the threat for severe
weather with any thunderstorms is very low.
Elsewhere across the CONUS, a dry post-frontal airmass will limit
surface return moisture through much of the day, negating sufficient
buoyancy for lightning.
..Lyons/Grams.. 01/18/2022
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