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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

SPC Jan 18, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorm areas are expected over the CONUS. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, split mid-level flow will dominate the flow pattern across the central and eastern US in the wake of the strong northeastern trough moving offshore today. A shortwave trough embedded within the strong northwesterly branch across the upper Midwest will drive an Arctic Front south across the northern Plains toward the Mississippi Valley late tonight. At the same time, a shortwave trough within the sub-tropical jet over northern Baja California is forecast to intensify as it moves east. The southern stream shortwave trough evident in moisture-channel imagery across southern CA and southwestern AZ is forecast to move east today across portions of the Desert Southwest, reaching the southern High plains by early Wednesday. As it does so, modest mid-level height falls and DCVA will overspread a modifying surface airmass across eastern AZ and western NM. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and surface temperatures near 50 F, will provide just enough buoyancy for the development of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Generally less than 250 J/kg, the meager MUCAPE and relatively weak vertical shear suggests the threat for severe weather with any thunderstorms is very low. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a dry post-frontal airmass will limit surface return moisture through much of the day, negating sufficient buoyancy for lightning. ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/18/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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