SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the
start of the period Thursday morning across parts of the lower MS
Valley into the Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. There is
still some uncertainty with the placement of the front and
precipitation over this region in various model guidance.
Regardless, the low-level moisture ahead of the front is forecast to
be rather limited, with minimal instability present. While isolated
thunderstorms may continue through the morning as the front moves
offshore, severe convection appears unlikely owing to the lack of
stronger instability (MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg).
Otherwise, low-level moisture should gradually return northward
through the period across parts of south/central FL ahead of a
positively tilted upper-trough encompassing much of the
central/eastern CONUS. Isolated convection appears possible mainly
late Thursday night across portions of coastal south FL and the Keys
as this process occurs.
..Gleason.. 01/18/2022
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