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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, January 16, 2022

SPC Jan 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough should move eastward from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley on Day 4/Wednesday. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that modest but sufficient low-level moisture should return northward ahead of a cold front from parts of the TX Coast into the lower MS Valley to support surface-based storms. Although instability is forecast to be relatively weak (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg), deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support some updraft organization. At this point, the overall severe potential still appears fairly isolated/marginal for Day 4/Wednesday owing to the limited instability. But, low severe probabilities may need to be included in a later outlook for portions of the Upper TX Coast into LA/MS if current model trends continue. Little thunderstorm potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Thursday. There are substantial differences in deterministic guidance regarding the placement and evolution of an upper trough over the central/eastern states by Day 6/Friday. The past couple runs of the ECMWF show a much more amplified upper trough over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico in this time frame compared to the GFS. If the more amplified solution occurs, then low-level moisture may return northward over parts of the FL Peninsula by Friday night as the low/mid-level wind fields likewise strengthen. Too much uncertainty currently exists to suggest that an organized severe threat will develop across this region on Day 6/Friday, but trends will be monitored. Thereafter, thunderstorm potential appears low next weekend. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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