DarkSky Temps | Gusts | WU KORD Data

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Sunday, January 16, 2022

SPC Jan 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough should move eastward from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley on Day 4/Wednesday. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that modest but sufficient low-level moisture should return northward ahead of a cold front from parts of the TX Coast into the lower MS Valley to support surface-based storms. Although instability is forecast to be relatively weak (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg), deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support some updraft organization. At this point, the overall severe potential still appears fairly isolated/marginal for Day 4/Wednesday owing to the limited instability. But, low severe probabilities may need to be included in a later outlook for portions of the Upper TX Coast into LA/MS if current model trends continue. Little thunderstorm potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 5/Thursday. There are substantial differences in deterministic guidance regarding the placement and evolution of an upper trough over the central/eastern states by Day 6/Friday. The past couple runs of the ECMWF show a much more amplified upper trough over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico in this time frame compared to the GFS. If the more amplified solution occurs, then low-level moisture may return northward over parts of the FL Peninsula by Friday night as the low/mid-level wind fields likewise strengthen. Too much uncertainty currently exists to suggest that an organized severe threat will develop across this region on Day 6/Friday, but trends will be monitored. Thereafter, thunderstorm potential appears low next weekend. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC