Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough should move
eastward from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley on Day
4/Wednesday. Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that
modest but sufficient low-level moisture should return northward
ahead of a cold front from parts of the TX Coast into the lower MS
Valley to support surface-based storms. Although instability is
forecast to be relatively weak (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg),
deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support some updraft
organization. At this point, the overall severe potential still
appears fairly isolated/marginal for Day 4/Wednesday owing to the
limited instability. But, low severe probabilities may need to be
included in a later outlook for portions of the Upper TX Coast into
LA/MS if current model trends continue.
Little thunderstorm potential is evident across the CONUS on Day
5/Thursday. There are substantial differences in deterministic
guidance regarding the placement and evolution of an upper trough
over the central/eastern states by Day 6/Friday. The past couple
runs of the ECMWF show a much more amplified upper trough over the
Southeast and Gulf of Mexico in this time frame compared to the GFS.
If the more amplified solution occurs, then low-level moisture may
return northward over parts of the FL Peninsula by Friday night as
the low/mid-level wind fields likewise strengthen. Too much
uncertainty currently exists to suggest that an organized severe
threat will develop across this region on Day 6/Friday, but trends
will be monitored. Thereafter, thunderstorm potential appears low
next weekend.
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