Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The only appreciable chance for thunderstorms through the extended
forecast period appears to be on Day 5/Wednesday. A southern-stream,
low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance eastward from the
southern Plains across the lower MS Valley. Due to a prior frontal
passage, just modest return of a partially modified Gulf airmass is
expected across the lower MS Valley and upper TX Coast vicinity by
Wednesday afternoon. Still, medium-range guidance is in reasonable
agreement that around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE may develop ahead of a
weak surface low and related cold front. Deep-layer may be
sufficient for some storm organization. Regardless, the overall
severe potential will probably remain fairly limited, owing to the
weak forecast instability and modest low-level moisture return. Once
the cold front clears the Gulf Coast, thunderstorms currently appear
unlikely across the CONUS from Day 6/Thursday through Day
8/Saturday.
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