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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, January 15, 2022

SPC Jan 15, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... The only appreciable chance for thunderstorms through the extended forecast period appears to be on Day 5/Wednesday. A southern-stream, low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance eastward from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley. Due to a prior frontal passage, just modest return of a partially modified Gulf airmass is expected across the lower MS Valley and upper TX Coast vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. Still, medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement that around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE may develop ahead of a weak surface low and related cold front. Deep-layer may be sufficient for some storm organization. Regardless, the overall severe potential will probably remain fairly limited, owing to the weak forecast instability and modest low-level moisture return. Once the cold front clears the Gulf Coast, thunderstorms currently appear unlikely across the CONUS from Day 6/Thursday through Day 8/Saturday. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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