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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, January 16, 2022

SPC Jan 16, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds remain possible across south Florida through mid-afternoon. A tornado or two and locally damaging winds are also possible across portions of the Carolina coast through this evening. ...South FL... A squall line with embedded LEWP structures will spread across the rest of the peninsula and Keys through mid-afternoon. While buoyancy will remain meager, surface temperatures will continue to slowly warm through the 70s while dew points creep through the 60s ahead of the line. Low-level shear will be greater with northern extent, generally overlapping with the fringe of the scant surface-based buoyancy. Some potential will exist for a couple tornadoes with an embedded supercell and transient mesovortex structures. Locally damaging winds are also possible. ...Carolina Coast... A rather pronounced baroclinic zone just offshore will attempt to advance inland as the triple-point surface cyclone near Savannah tracks along the Carolina coastal plain. However, expansive antecedent precipitation will inhibit inland destabilization near and east of the triple point. A narrow sliver of surface-based CAPE to about 250 J/kg is possible from the Cape Fear to Outer Banks vicinity. If this buoyancy develops over land, it should be confined mostly below optimal lightning-generation layers by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates. More probable convective development is expected just off the coast and this may graze any narrow warm sector on land with some risk for a tornado or two and isolated damaging winds. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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