Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, January 16, 2022

SPC Jan 16, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds remain possible across south Florida through mid-afternoon. A tornado or two and locally damaging winds are also possible across portions of the Carolina coast through this evening. ...South FL... A squall line with embedded LEWP structures will spread across the rest of the peninsula and Keys through mid-afternoon. While buoyancy will remain meager, surface temperatures will continue to slowly warm through the 70s while dew points creep through the 60s ahead of the line. Low-level shear will be greater with northern extent, generally overlapping with the fringe of the scant surface-based buoyancy. Some potential will exist for a couple tornadoes with an embedded supercell and transient mesovortex structures. Locally damaging winds are also possible. ...Carolina Coast... A rather pronounced baroclinic zone just offshore will attempt to advance inland as the triple-point surface cyclone near Savannah tracks along the Carolina coastal plain. However, expansive antecedent precipitation will inhibit inland destabilization near and east of the triple point. A narrow sliver of surface-based CAPE to about 250 J/kg is possible from the Cape Fear to Outer Banks vicinity. If this buoyancy develops over land, it should be confined mostly below optimal lightning-generation layers by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates. More probable convective development is expected just off the coast and this may graze any narrow warm sector on land with some risk for a tornado or two and isolated damaging winds. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC