SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FL...
...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds remain possible across
south Florida through mid-afternoon. A tornado or two and locally
damaging winds are also possible across portions of the Carolina
coast through this evening.
...South FL...
A squall line with embedded LEWP structures will spread across the
rest of the peninsula and Keys through mid-afternoon. While buoyancy
will remain meager, surface temperatures will continue to slowly
warm through the 70s while dew points creep through the 60s ahead of
the line. Low-level shear will be greater with northern extent,
generally overlapping with the fringe of the scant surface-based
buoyancy. Some potential will exist for a couple tornadoes with an
embedded supercell and transient mesovortex structures. Locally
damaging winds are also possible.
...Carolina Coast...
A rather pronounced baroclinic zone just offshore will attempt to
advance inland as the triple-point surface cyclone near Savannah
tracks along the Carolina coastal plain. However, expansive
antecedent precipitation will inhibit inland destabilization near
and east of the triple point. A narrow sliver of surface-based CAPE
to about 250 J/kg is possible from the Cape Fear to Outer Banks
vicinity. If this buoyancy develops over land, it should be confined
mostly below optimal lightning-generation layers by poor
mid/upper-level lapse rates. More probable convective development is
expected just off the coast and this may graze any narrow warm
sector on land with some risk for a tornado or two and isolated
damaging winds.
..Grams/Lyons.. 01/16/2022
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