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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Friday, January 14, 2022

SPC Jan 14, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may affect parts of the Florida Panhandle and western Florida Peninsula Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Occasional damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should be the main threats. ...Southeast... An upper trough/low located over the central/southern Plains Saturday morning will advance towards the lower MS Valley through the day, eventually reaching the central Gulf Coast states by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A related surface low should likewise develop from LA/MS to the vicinity of the FL Panhandle by the end of the period. A prior frontal passage has shunted rich low-level moisture well south into the Gulf of Mexico. It remains questionable how much low-level moisture will be able to return northward towards the central Gulf Coast through Saturday night ahead of the surface low and its attendant cold front. Latest guidance suggests that low 60s surface dewpoints may struggle to reach very far inland across the FL Panhandle and the Gulf Coast of the FL Peninsula through 12Z Sunday morning, with only mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dewpoints farther north into parts of central MS just ahead of the surface low. Related instability should be rather weak, with MLCAPE likely remaining less than 500 J/kg, and perhaps even below 250 J/kg. The potential for surface-based storms across southern LA into southern/central MS through Saturday afternoon is too uncertain to include even low severe probabilities, as poor lapse rates and a remnant inversion aloft should temper updraft intensity across this area. Even with the limited instability, both low-level and deep-layer shear are forecast to be fairly strong over the central Gulf Coast region, especially as a southerly low-level jet quickly strengthens Saturday night in tandem with an approaching mid-level jet. Isolated strong to perhaps marginally severe storms may move slightly inland from the northern Gulf of Mexico across parts of the FL Panhandle, mainly after 00Z. Given the strength of the low-level flow, occasional damaging winds may occur even with minimal instability. A veering and strengthening wind profile with height through the boundary layer should support updraft rotation with any storm that can become surface based. A tornado or two may also occur given this favorable low-level shear. The lack of stronger forecast instability precludes any more than low severe probabilities. These storms should approach the western FL Peninsula by the end of the Day 2 period, and they may continue to pose an isolated severe threat as low-level moisture return remains barely adequate for surface-based convection. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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