SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may affect parts of the
Florida Panhandle and western Florida Peninsula Saturday night into
early Sunday morning. Occasional damaging winds and perhaps a brief
tornado or two should be the main threats.
...Southeast...
An upper trough/low located over the central/southern Plains
Saturday morning will advance towards the lower MS Valley through
the day, eventually reaching the central Gulf Coast states by late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A related surface low
should likewise develop from LA/MS to the vicinity of the FL
Panhandle by the end of the period. A prior frontal passage has
shunted rich low-level moisture well south into the Gulf of Mexico.
It remains questionable how much low-level moisture will be able to
return northward towards the central Gulf Coast through Saturday
night ahead of the surface low and its attendant cold front. Latest
guidance suggests that low 60s surface dewpoints may struggle to
reach very far inland across the FL Panhandle and the Gulf Coast of
the FL Peninsula through 12Z Sunday morning, with only mid to
perhaps upper 50s surface dewpoints farther north into parts of
central MS just ahead of the surface low. Related instability should
be rather weak, with MLCAPE likely remaining less than 500 J/kg, and
perhaps even below 250 J/kg. The potential for surface-based storms
across southern LA into southern/central MS through Saturday
afternoon is too uncertain to include even low severe probabilities,
as poor lapse rates and a remnant inversion aloft should temper
updraft intensity across this area.
Even with the limited instability, both low-level and deep-layer
shear are forecast to be fairly strong over the central Gulf Coast
region, especially as a southerly low-level jet quickly strengthens
Saturday night in tandem with an approaching mid-level jet. Isolated
strong to perhaps marginally severe storms may move slightly inland
from the northern Gulf of Mexico across parts of the FL Panhandle,
mainly after 00Z. Given the strength of the low-level flow,
occasional damaging winds may occur even with minimal instability. A
veering and strengthening wind profile with height through the
boundary layer should support updraft rotation with any storm that
can become surface based. A tornado or two may also occur given this
favorable low-level shear. The lack of stronger forecast instability
precludes any more than low severe probabilities. These storms
should approach the western FL Peninsula by the end of the Day 2
period, and they may continue to pose an isolated severe threat as
low-level moisture return remains barely adequate for surface-based
convection.
..Gleason.. 01/14/2022
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