SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
through Friday night.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently over the northern
Intermountain West and the other over central Alberta, are forecast
to continue southeastward throughout the day. The southernmost
shortwave is expected to reach the southern High Plains by this
evening, while the northernmost shortwave will reach the central
Plains. This overall evolution will result in a deep, positively
tilted upper trough across much of the central CONUS tonight.
Additional strengthening/maturing is anticipated with the central
Plains shortwave developing a closed circulation as it moves across
KS and OK early Saturday morning.
Surface cyclogenesis is also anticipated as a result of the
approaching shortwaves, with a low developing over the northern TX
Panhandle this morning before then tracking east-southeastward
throughout the day and overnight. By early Saturday morning, this
surface low will likely be centered near the Arklatex, with a cold
front extending southwestward along the TX/LA border to just off the
TX Coast. Some moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front.
However, given the cool and dry antecedent conditions across much of
the western Gulf, any air mass modification will be modest with 60s
dewpoints limited to the immediate coast. Even in areas with 60s
dewpoints, warm temperatures aloft will limit buoyancy, precluding
thunderstorm development.
Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 01/14/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SH5j3x
