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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, January 14, 2022

SPC Jan 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently over the northern Intermountain West and the other over central Alberta, are forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day. The southernmost shortwave is expected to reach the southern High Plains by this evening, while the northernmost shortwave will reach the central Plains. This overall evolution will result in a deep, positively tilted upper trough across much of the central CONUS tonight. Additional strengthening/maturing is anticipated with the central Plains shortwave developing a closed circulation as it moves across KS and OK early Saturday morning. Surface cyclogenesis is also anticipated as a result of the approaching shortwaves, with a low developing over the northern TX Panhandle this morning before then tracking east-southeastward throughout the day and overnight. By early Saturday morning, this surface low will likely be centered near the Arklatex, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX/LA border to just off the TX Coast. Some moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front. However, given the cool and dry antecedent conditions across much of the western Gulf, any air mass modification will be modest with 60s dewpoints limited to the immediate coast. Even in areas with 60s dewpoints, warm temperatures aloft will limit buoyancy, precluding thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 01/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
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