Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
While model differences exist regarding the speed of a shortwave
trough as it moves across the Southeast on Sunday/D4, the main
mitigating factor continues to be how much destabilization will
occur. It appears that a plume of 60s F dewpoints will eventually
affect the western FL Peninsula near the cold front, with scattered
to numerous thunderstorms progressing across the state. Forecast
soundings from both ECMWF and GFS members show generally less than
100 J/kg MUCAPE which would clearly limit severe potential despite
strong deep-layer shear. The greatest chance of isolated severe
storms may be Sunday morning as storms affect the west coast of FL.
Low severe probabilities may be added for this type of scenario in
subsequent outlooks.
To the north and ahead of the surface low, a warm front will
approach the coastal Carolinas during the afternoon, and widespread
precipitation will severely limit heating. It is questionable
whether any SBCAPE will develop over land. As such, predictability
is too low for this area, but large, looping hodographs will exist
along and north of the warm front, and will conditionally favor
supercells should SBCAPE be larger than currently forecast (zero to
50 J/kg).
Stable conditions will prevail on Monday/D5 with high pressure
spreading from the southern Plains into the Gulf of Mexico. By
Tuesday/D6, upper flow over the southern Plains will become more
zonal, and may strengthen as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
from southern AZ and NM across TX. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s
across eastern TX during the day on Tuesday/D6, but may increase
into the 55-60F range overnight. While a few thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as a weak low develops across northern TX Monday night,
most ensemble members suggest very little instability due to the
early moisture return. Thunder chances will be greater on
Wednesday/D7 from the upper TX Coast into the lower MS Valley along
a cold front, but even so, MUCAPE is only forecast to be around 500
J/kg ahead of a surging cold front, with generally low potential.
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