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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, January 13, 2022

SPC Jan 13, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... While model differences exist regarding the speed of a shortwave trough as it moves across the Southeast on Sunday/D4, the main mitigating factor continues to be how much destabilization will occur. It appears that a plume of 60s F dewpoints will eventually affect the western FL Peninsula near the cold front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms progressing across the state. Forecast soundings from both ECMWF and GFS members show generally less than 100 J/kg MUCAPE which would clearly limit severe potential despite strong deep-layer shear. The greatest chance of isolated severe storms may be Sunday morning as storms affect the west coast of FL. Low severe probabilities may be added for this type of scenario in subsequent outlooks. To the north and ahead of the surface low, a warm front will approach the coastal Carolinas during the afternoon, and widespread precipitation will severely limit heating. It is questionable whether any SBCAPE will develop over land. As such, predictability is too low for this area, but large, looping hodographs will exist along and north of the warm front, and will conditionally favor supercells should SBCAPE be larger than currently forecast (zero to 50 J/kg). Stable conditions will prevail on Monday/D5 with high pressure spreading from the southern Plains into the Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday/D6, upper flow over the southern Plains will become more zonal, and may strengthen as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from southern AZ and NM across TX. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across eastern TX during the day on Tuesday/D6, but may increase into the 55-60F range overnight. While a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as a weak low develops across northern TX Monday night, most ensemble members suggest very little instability due to the early moisture return. Thunder chances will be greater on Wednesday/D7 from the upper TX Coast into the lower MS Valley along a cold front, but even so, MUCAPE is only forecast to be around 500 J/kg ahead of a surging cold front, with generally low potential. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC