SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may affects parts of the
Florida Panhandle late Saturday night.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough over the Plains will move southeastward across MO,
OK and TX on Saturday, with a midlevel jet streak of 100 kt
developing into the Sabine Valley by 00Z Sunday. The jet streak and
associated midlevel temperature gradient will extend roughly from
northern AL into southern MS and LA by 12Z Sunday as a cold front
surges well to the east.
Models have been fairly consistent showing minimal SBCAPE with this
system, as dewpoints only rise into the 50s inland and lower 60s F
near the Gulf Coast. Mid 60s F dewpoints, and therefore MUCAPE of
200-500 J/kg, may eventually affect areas such as the coastal FL
Panhandle after 06Z Sunday morning. Forecast soundings show
deep-layer shear exceeding 50 kt, with modest effective SRH around
200 m2/s2. This may support a localized wind or brief tornado threat
centered over the coastal counties in the FL Panhandle, as storms
over the northern Gulf waters approach shore.
It should be noted that model differences exist with the speed of
this system, and it is conceivable that thunderstorms over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico could affect the western FL Peninsula toward
the end of the period.
..Jewell.. 01/13/2022
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