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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, January 13, 2022

SPC Jan 13, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may affects parts of the Florida Panhandle late Saturday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough over the Plains will move southeastward across MO, OK and TX on Saturday, with a midlevel jet streak of 100 kt developing into the Sabine Valley by 00Z Sunday. The jet streak and associated midlevel temperature gradient will extend roughly from northern AL into southern MS and LA by 12Z Sunday as a cold front surges well to the east. Models have been fairly consistent showing minimal SBCAPE with this system, as dewpoints only rise into the 50s inland and lower 60s F near the Gulf Coast. Mid 60s F dewpoints, and therefore MUCAPE of 200-500 J/kg, may eventually affect areas such as the coastal FL Panhandle after 06Z Sunday morning. Forecast soundings show deep-layer shear exceeding 50 kt, with modest effective SRH around 200 m2/s2. This may support a localized wind or brief tornado threat centered over the coastal counties in the FL Panhandle, as storms over the northern Gulf waters approach shore. It should be noted that model differences exist with the speed of this system, and it is conceivable that thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico could affect the western FL Peninsula toward the end of the period. ..Jewell.. 01/13/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC