SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast Monday,
but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period
centered over Far West TX before then progressing eastward across
the TX Hill Country and middle/upper TX Coast throughout the day.
Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave over the
lower/middle TX coast Monday morning, with the resulting surface low
tracking northeastward just off the TX coast during the day. This
low is then expected to track more easterly Monday night into
Tuesday morning, staying just off the LA Coast over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico. This trajectory is expected to keep
the warm and moist air offshore, minimizing the buoyancy inland.
Consequently, despite strong forcing for ascent attendant to the
shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage will be limited, with only
isolated thunderstorms are expected over the TX Coast. The greater
thunderstorm coverage and potential for a few stronger storms is
currently expected to stay well offshore.
Elsewhere, northern-stream upper troughing will remain in place from
the northern High Plains into much of eastern CONUS, reinforced by a
series of embedded shortwave troughs. The progression of these
shortwaves will also help reinforce the dry and stable conditions in
place across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS.
..Mosier.. 01/22/2022
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