DarkSky Temps | Gusts | WU KORD Data

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...

RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN

NEXRAD

STORMTRACK

Cardinal SAT

CHGOWX.COM



Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

SPC Dec 28, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the lower Mississippi Delta region. ...20Z Update... Minor adjustments to the general thunderstorm line were made based on current observations. The remainder of the forecast is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 28 2021/ ...LA/MS... A broad area of warm/moist surface conditions are present today from east TX into the Mid-South, resulting in modest CAPE values over the region. Large scale forcing for ascent across this region is weak, and a mid-level capping inversion is present. This will greatly limit the extent of thunderstorm activity in most areas. However, there is a corridor from southern LA into central MS were model guidance shows the capping inversion weakening through the day, leading to a few robust storms this afternoon and evening. Low-level shear profiles in this region are relatively strong, suggesting some potential for rotating updrafts and a marginal risk of a tornado, wind gust or hail report. Therefore will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area with no changes. ...Lower OH Valley... Another area of some concern for gusty thunderstorm winds is over the lower OH Valley. A band of fast-moving low-topped showers is expected to develop this afternoon over southeast MO and track across portions of southern IL, southern IN, and western/central KY. Forecast soundings suggest that weak thermodynamic profiles (MUCAPE only 100-200 J/kg) will limit the risk of lightning with this activity. However, very strong wind fields may result in a few locally strong wind gusts with the more intense showers or isolated thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty and weak CAPE fields, will maintain a less than 5% severe wind probability forecast. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SG9qm0