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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, December 28, 2021

SPC Dec 28, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 28 2021 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the lower Mississippi Delta region. ...LA/MS... A broad area of warm/moist surface conditions are present today from east TX into the Mid-South, resulting in modest CAPE values over the region. Large scale forcing for ascent across this region is weak, and a mid-level capping inversion is present. This will greatly limit the extent of thunderstorm activity in most areas. However, there is a corridor from southern LA into central MS were model guidance shows the capping inversion weakening through the day, leading to a few robust storms this afternoon and evening. Low-level shear profiles in this region are relatively strong, suggesting some potential for rotating updrafts and a marginal risk of a tornado, wind gust or hail report. Therefore will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area with no changes. ...Lower OH Valley... Another area of some concern for gusty thunderstorm winds is over the lower OH Valley. A band of fast-moving low-topped showers is expected to develop this afternoon over southeast MO and track across portions of southern IL, southern IN, and western/central KY. Forecast soundings suggest that weak thermodynamic profiles (MUCAPE only 100-200 J/kg) will limit the risk of lightning with this activity. However, very strong wind fields may result in a few locally strong wind gusts with the more intense showers or isolated thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty and weak CAPE fields, will maintain a less than 5% severe wind probability forecast. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/28/2021 Read more LIVE:
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