SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening from
southern Alabama into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
...20Z Update...
A broken line of occasionally severe thunderstorms continues to
slowly move southward across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds
will continue to the main threat along with brief tornadoes and
marginally severe hail. Severe probabilities have been removed from
areas impacted by convection this afternoon as the airmass has
stabilized.
..Wendt.. 12/30/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0944 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021/
...AL/GA/SC...
Morning surface analysis shows a convectively enhanced surface
boundary extending from central AL eastward across north-central GA
into central SC. The air mass south of this boundary is quite moist
and potentially unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Visible
satellite imagery suggests substantial daytime heating will occur in
this area, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Winds aloft are quite strong, but veered. This will limit low-level
convergence, vertical shear, and forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless,
a consensus of 12z model guidance shows considerable coverage of
discrete storms this afternoon during the peak-heating hours ahead
of the boundary. The more robust storms could be become
supercellular or organize into small bowing complexes capable of
damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two. The primary threat is
likely from 20-02z.
Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SGHjGP
