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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, December 30, 2021

SPC Dec 30, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening from southern Alabama into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A broken line of occasionally severe thunderstorms continues to slowly move southward across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds will continue to the main threat along with brief tornadoes and marginally severe hail. Severe probabilities have been removed from areas impacted by convection this afternoon as the airmass has stabilized. ..Wendt.. 12/30/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0944 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021/ ...AL/GA/SC... Morning surface analysis shows a convectively enhanced surface boundary extending from central AL eastward across north-central GA into central SC. The air mass south of this boundary is quite moist and potentially unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Visible satellite imagery suggests substantial daytime heating will occur in this area, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Winds aloft are quite strong, but veered. This will limit low-level convergence, vertical shear, and forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, a consensus of 12z model guidance shows considerable coverage of discrete storms this afternoon during the peak-heating hours ahead of the boundary. The more robust storms could be become supercellular or organize into small bowing complexes capable of damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two. The primary threat is likely from 20-02z. Read more LIVE:
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
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