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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, December 27, 2021

SPC Dec 27, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley region, while an isolated storm or two may also evolve late tonight from the northeast Oklahoma vicinity to the Ozarks. ...Discussion... Aside from a few minor line adjustments, primarily to decrease the size of the thunder area over the Ozarks vicinity due to very meager -- and low-topped -- CAPE, the ongoing outlook continues to reflect current expectations. No major changes are therefore required at this time. ..Goss.. 12/27/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... A surface warm front currently extends across central OH into northern WV. This boundary will lift slowly northward today into PA, with a warmer and marginally unstable air mass spreading into those areas. Several 12z cams suggest the development of a few thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening across southeast OH, the northern panhandle of WV, and southwest PA. Forecast soundings show sufficient elevated CAPE and cloud-bearing shear to pose a risk of small hail and/or gusty winds in the strongest cells. At this time, the risk of severe storms appears low enough to keep probabilities less than 5%. ...OK/MO Vicinity... After midnight tonight, showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a zone of intensifying low-level warm advection over eastern OK, southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR. No severe storms are anticipated. Read more LIVE:
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