SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Dec 27 2021
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the mid/upper Ohio
Valley region, while an isolated storm or two may also evolve late
tonight from the northeast Oklahoma vicinity to the Ozarks.
...Discussion...
Aside from a few minor line adjustments, primarily to decrease the
size of the thunder area over the Ozarks vicinity due to very meager
-- and low-topped -- CAPE, the ongoing outlook continues to reflect
current expectations. No major changes are therefore required at
this time.
..Goss.. 12/27/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021/
...Upper Ohio Valley...
A surface warm front currently extends across central OH into
northern WV. This boundary will lift slowly northward today into
PA, with a warmer and marginally unstable air mass spreading into
those areas. Several 12z cams suggest the development of a few
thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening across
southeast OH, the northern panhandle of WV, and southwest PA.
Forecast soundings show sufficient elevated CAPE and cloud-bearing
shear to pose a risk of small hail and/or gusty winds in the
strongest cells. At this time, the risk of severe storms appears
low enough to keep probabilities less than 5%.
...OK/MO Vicinity...
After midnight tonight, showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are
expected to develop in a zone of intensifying low-level warm
advection over eastern OK, southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest
AR. No severe storms are anticipated.
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